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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston4.76+2.26vs Predicted
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2University of South Florida3.49+4.81vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05+5.33vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University3.39+3.18vs Predicted
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5Washington College2.84+3.85vs Predicted
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6Yale University3.89-0.28vs Predicted
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7Stanford University4.19-2.31vs Predicted
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8Tufts University3.37-0.90vs Predicted
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9University of Minnesota2.53+1.13vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont3.27-2.52vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College3.05-2.61vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University3.03-3.74vs Predicted
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13Texas A&M University at Galveston1.10+0.66vs Predicted
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14U. S. Naval Academy2.99-5.43vs Predicted
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15University of Miami1.24-1.71vs Predicted
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16Michigan State University0.66-1.51vs Predicted
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17Hampton University-1.85-0.20vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.26College of Charleston4.760.3%1st Place
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6.81University of South Florida3.490.1%1st Place
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8.33St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.0%1st Place
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7.18Georgetown University3.390.1%1st Place
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8.85Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
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5.72Yale University3.890.1%1st Place
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4.69Stanford University4.190.1%1st Place
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7.1Tufts University3.370.1%1st Place
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10.13University of Minnesota2.530.0%1st Place
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7.48University of Vermont3.270.1%1st Place
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8.39SUNY Maritime College3.050.1%1st Place
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8.26Old Dominion University3.030.0%1st Place
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13.66Texas A&M University at Galveston1.100.0%1st Place
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8.57U. S. Naval Academy2.990.0%1st Place
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13.29University of Miami1.240.0%1st Place
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14.49Michigan State University0.660.0%1st Place
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16.8Hampton University-1.850.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Maegli | 27.4% | 19.1% | 15.0% | 12.1% | 10.2% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Stocke | 6.3% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 10.8% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Wallace | 3.8% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 4.8% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Greg Martinez | 6.4% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Bailey | 3.3% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 3.7% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Cam Cullman | 9.4% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 12.9% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kieran Chung | 14.1% | 13.2% | 13.5% | 12.4% | 10.8% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Hutchings | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wheeler Morris | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 11.0% | 14.1% | 10.6% | 7.0% | 2.3% | 0.1% |
| Michael Booker | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Nick Valente | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 5.4% | 2.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Collin Leon | 4.8% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 5.8% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Dylan Marohn | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 17.0% | 27.6% | 25.8% | 3.4% |
| George Prieto | 3.4% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 11.4% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Matt Jaykus | 0.3% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 20.1% | 23.7% | 21.6% | 1.6% |
| Elizabeth Dust | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 12.5% | 23.8% | 41.2% | 5.1% |
| Stefano Nardini | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 2.7% | 5.9% | 89.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.