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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.64+5.30vs Predicted
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2College of Charleston4.76+1.34vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University3.39+4.17vs Predicted
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4Stanford University4.19+0.85vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University3.03+3.20vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College3.05+2.43vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy2.90+1.85vs Predicted
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8University of South Florida3.49-1.24vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05-0.51vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont3.27-2.48vs Predicted
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11University of Miami1.24+2.31vs Predicted
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12Texas A&M University at Galveston1.10+1.69vs Predicted
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13University of Minnesota2.53-2.89vs Predicted
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14Michigan State University0.66+0.49vs Predicted
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15Yale University3.89-9.41vs Predicted
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16Hampton University-1.85+0.78vs Predicted
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17Washington College2.84-7.87vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.3Brown University3.640.1%1st Place
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3.34College of Charleston4.760.3%1st Place
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7.17Georgetown University3.390.1%1st Place
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4.85Stanford University4.190.1%1st Place
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8.2Old Dominion University3.030.0%1st Place
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8.43SUNY Maritime College3.050.0%1st Place
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8.85U. S. Naval Academy2.900.0%1st Place
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6.76University of South Florida3.490.1%1st Place
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8.49St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.0%1st Place
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7.52University of Vermont3.270.0%1st Place
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13.31University of Miami1.240.0%1st Place
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13.69Texas A&M University at Galveston1.100.0%1st Place
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10.11University of Minnesota2.530.0%1st Place
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14.49Michigan State University0.660.0%1st Place
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5.59Yale University3.890.1%1st Place
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16.78Hampton University-1.850.0%1st Place
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9.13Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Adams | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Juan Maegli | 25.4% | 19.2% | 16.7% | 12.9% | 10.3% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Greg Martinez | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kieran Chung | 14.7% | 12.6% | 11.1% | 12.6% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Collin Leon | 4.0% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 2.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nick Valente | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 5.5% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Philip Youngberg | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 6.3% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Stocke | 7.1% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| John Wallace | 3.4% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 2.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Michael Booker | 4.8% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Matt Jaykus | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 4.8% | 9.1% | 17.3% | 27.1% | 21.1% | 2.0% |
| Dylan Marohn | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 9.1% | 16.6% | 26.2% | 26.5% | 1.6% |
| Wheeler Morris | 2.5% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 12.0% | 13.1% | 12.5% | 5.7% | 2.5% | 0.1% |
| Elizabeth Dust | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 5.2% | 10.7% | 24.3% | 40.9% | 5.6% |
| Cam Cullman | 11.1% | 11.0% | 11.0% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stefano Nardini | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 5.5% | 90.7% |
| Ryan Bailey | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 11.5% | 8.8% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.