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📊 Prediction Accuracy
52.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston4.76+2.29vs Predicted
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2Stanford University4.19+2.67vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University3.39+4.17vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.90+4.76vs Predicted
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5Yale University3.89+0.48vs Predicted
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6Tufts University3.37+1.36vs Predicted
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7University of Vermont3.27+0.59vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05+0.13vs Predicted
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9Brown University3.64-2.50vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College3.05-1.83vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University3.03-2.58vs Predicted
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12University of Miami1.24+1.36vs Predicted
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13Washington College2.84-3.88vs Predicted
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14University of Minnesota2.53-3.92vs Predicted
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15Texas A&M University at Galveston1.10-1.44vs Predicted
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16Michigan State University0.66-1.47vs Predicted
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17Hampton University-1.85-0.20vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.29College of Charleston4.760.3%1st Place
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4.67Stanford University4.190.1%1st Place
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7.17Georgetown University3.390.1%1st Place
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8.76U. S. Naval Academy2.900.0%1st Place
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5.48Yale University3.890.1%1st Place
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7.36Tufts University3.370.1%1st Place
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7.59University of Vermont3.270.1%1st Place
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8.13St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.1%1st Place
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6.5Brown University3.640.1%1st Place
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8.17SUNY Maritime College3.050.0%1st Place
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8.42Old Dominion University3.030.0%1st Place
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13.36University of Miami1.240.0%1st Place
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9.12Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
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10.08University of Minnesota2.530.0%1st Place
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13.56Texas A&M University at Galveston1.100.0%1st Place
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14.53Michigan State University0.660.0%1st Place
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16.8Hampton University-1.850.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Maegli | 26.7% | 19.3% | 15.3% | 12.7% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kieran Chung | 13.7% | 15.8% | 12.6% | 12.2% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 7.6% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Greg Martinez | 5.6% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Philip Youngberg | 3.9% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 11.5% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 3.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Cam Cullman | 10.5% | 12.5% | 10.6% | 11.6% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Hutchings | 6.3% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Booker | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Wallace | 5.2% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 5.3% | 2.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Lucas Adams | 6.7% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nick Valente | 3.6% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Collin Leon | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Matt Jaykus | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 8.2% | 17.9% | 26.4% | 20.8% | 1.9% |
| Ryan Bailey | 4.6% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 11.0% | 7.1% | 4.0% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Wheeler Morris | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 10.6% | 16.0% | 12.8% | 6.0% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Dylan Marohn | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 17.0% | 25.5% | 25.7% | 2.4% |
| Elizabeth Dust | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 12.5% | 21.9% | 42.5% | 5.7% |
| Stefano Nardini | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 6.7% | 89.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.