Race 1A

north-fall-2-qualifier

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Lauren Turner 24.6% 21.0% 16.0% 12.1% 9.4% 7.1% 4.3% 3.1% 1.1% 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Brendan O'Leary 17.2% 17.0% 15.4% 12.8% 10.5% 9.7% 7.8% 3.5% 2.8% 1.7% 1.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0%
Nathan Fast 5.0% 5.6% 5.8% 6.1% 7.0% 7.5% 8.2% 9.5% 10.5% 11.7% 10.4% 6.8% 4.4% 1.5%
Maria Sinagra 8.4% 12.3% 11.5% 11.7% 10.2% 11.6% 10.2% 8.0% 6.3% 4.8% 3.3% 1.2% 0.5% 0.0%
Benjaim Helfand 3.4% 4.6% 5.5% 5.7% 8.6% 6.3% 9.6% 8.2% 9.7% 10.2% 10.5% 10.1% 4.9% 2.7%
Emily Bicks 4.7% 3.7% 5.3% 6.0% 6.7% 8.4% 9.5% 9.9% 11.2% 8.6% 9.6% 8.7% 6.2% 1.5%
Griffin Orr 10.5% 10.2% 12.2% 11.0% 11.7% 10.3% 8.3% 8.8% 7.1% 3.8% 3.4% 1.8% 0.8% 0.1%
Arielle Morgan 5.0% 4.8% 5.3% 5.9% 7.6% 6.7% 8.2% 10.6% 9.1% 10.7% 7.6% 9.2% 7.1% 2.2%
Andrew Murphy 3.9% 3.6% 3.0% 3.9% 6.6% 4.6% 6.4% 9.3% 12.1% 12.2% 11.9% 11.2% 8.0% 3.3%
Conor Cashel 9.8% 9.5% 12.8% 12.7% 10.7% 11.4% 9.9% 8.8% 5.7% 4.4% 2.6% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2%
Andrew Baransky 2.4% 2.8% 2.6% 3.5% 3.7% 6.1% 6.7% 6.8% 9.3% 9.0% 12.3% 14.6% 14.2% 6.0%
Daniel Christiani 1.2% 0.8% 0.9% 2.0% 1.6% 2.6% 2.1% 3.3% 4.9% 5.9% 8.0% 13.7% 24.0% 29.0%
Rachel Kozicz 1.1% 0.9% 0.4% 1.3% 1.3% 1.2% 1.7% 2.0% 3.1% 4.4% 5.3% 9.4% 18.7% 49.2%
Andrew Beckmann 2.8% 3.2% 3.3% 5.3% 4.4% 6.5% 7.1% 8.2% 7.1% 12.0% 13.5% 11.8% 10.5% 4.3%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.