Race 4A

north-fall-2-qualifier

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

28.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Brendan O'Leary 17.9% 16.1% 16.1% 10.8% 11.7% 9.6% 6.0% 4.0% 3.3% 2.3% 1.1% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0%
Emily Bicks 3.8% 6.7% 7.0% 5.8% 8.2% 7.0% 8.7% 9.0% 11.2% 10.6% 9.0% 6.4% 4.7% 1.9%
Conor Cashel 10.9% 12.8% 10.9% 10.0% 10.8% 11.5% 8.2% 8.1% 7.4% 5.0% 3.0% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Arielle Morgan 3.2% 4.6% 6.2% 7.6% 6.6% 7.1% 8.4% 9.7% 9.6% 9.9% 10.3% 9.2% 5.8% 1.8%
Griffin Orr 8.4% 8.4% 11.0% 13.1% 9.3% 10.3% 11.7% 7.9% 7.7% 5.8% 3.5% 2.2% 0.5% 0.2%
Daniel Christiani 0.6% 1.3% 1.8% 1.0% 2.4% 1.8% 3.0% 3.0% 4.5% 4.4% 9.5% 12.6% 24.2% 29.9%
Maria Sinagra 11.3% 13.1% 10.3% 11.9% 11.3% 10.2% 9.6% 7.5% 6.7% 4.5% 1.6% 1.4% 0.6% 0.0%
Lauren Turner 25.7% 18.8% 16.6% 12.6% 8.3% 7.0% 3.9% 4.2% 2.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Andrew Murphy 4.0% 3.1% 3.1% 4.6% 6.3% 5.0% 7.8% 7.9% 11.2% 11.5% 10.7% 12.9% 8.4% 3.5%
Nathan Fast 4.0% 4.8% 3.9% 7.8% 7.4% 8.7% 9.3% 9.5% 9.1% 9.6% 11.1% 8.8% 4.3% 1.7%
Andrew Beckmann 2.8% 2.5% 3.2% 4.1% 4.8% 6.0% 6.5% 8.1% 8.3% 11.3% 11.2% 14.3% 11.7% 5.2%
Rachel Kozicz 0.3% 0.7% 0.5% 1.4% 1.8% 1.2% 1.9% 2.4% 2.1% 4.4% 5.7% 8.6% 20.1% 48.9%
Benjaim Helfand 4.8% 4.3% 6.0% 5.7% 5.3% 8.4% 9.7% 11.1% 9.6% 9.1% 10.0% 8.2% 5.7% 2.1%
Andrew Baransky 2.3% 2.8% 3.4% 3.6% 5.8% 6.2% 5.3% 7.6% 7.3% 11.1% 13.0% 13.6% 13.2% 4.8%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.