Race 5A

north-fall-2-qualifier

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

35.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Brendan O'Leary 17.3% 16.5% 15.6% 12.0% 10.9% 8.1% 7.3% 4.6% 3.8% 1.6% 1.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
Griffin Orr 11.2% 11.7% 9.7% 9.7% 12.1% 11.1% 10.5% 8.1% 6.7% 3.9% 2.2% 1.9% 1.0% 0.2%
Arielle Morgan 4.6% 4.3% 6.4% 5.8% 6.6% 6.3% 7.1% 9.8% 10.5% 11.7% 11.9% 8.2% 5.1% 1.7%
Nathan Fast 3.2% 5.0% 6.3% 6.3% 9.2% 6.9% 8.1% 8.6% 11.1% 10.9% 10.9% 6.6% 5.4% 1.5%
Maria Sinagra 8.4% 10.5% 10.1% 13.2% 10.5% 11.2% 10.1% 8.8% 5.9% 6.4% 2.8% 1.6% 0.3% 0.2%
Lauren Turner 23.5% 19.3% 16.7% 13.9% 8.8% 6.8% 5.7% 2.5% 1.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Andrew Murphy 3.9% 3.8% 4.7% 5.9% 6.5% 6.2% 8.3% 8.5% 7.9% 9.7% 12.8% 10.8% 8.3% 2.7%
Andrew Beckmann 3.2% 2.5% 4.5% 5.3% 4.2% 6.9% 4.6% 7.9% 8.9% 10.7% 10.4% 13.3% 11.9% 5.7%
Daniel Christiani 1.5% 1.2% 1.6% 1.5% 0.9% 2.6% 2.4% 3.4% 3.9% 5.9% 7.5% 14.5% 23.8% 29.3%
Emily Bicks 4.4% 4.2% 4.8% 5.6% 8.1% 7.8% 9.3% 10.6% 9.4% 10.9% 10.3% 8.3% 5.4% 0.9%
Andrew Baransky 1.7% 3.2% 2.5% 3.8% 4.8% 4.8% 6.6% 6.4% 9.6% 9.8% 10.2% 16.3% 13.1% 7.2%
Rachel Kozicz 0.5% 0.6% 0.9% 0.7% 1.2% 2.2% 1.4% 2.5% 2.5% 3.6% 6.6% 9.2% 20.1% 48.0%
Benjaim Helfand 4.9% 4.9% 5.5% 5.4% 5.6% 8.6% 8.3% 9.9% 10.9% 10.9% 10.3% 7.4% 4.8% 2.6%
Conor Cashel 11.7% 12.3% 10.7% 10.9% 10.6% 10.5% 10.3% 8.4% 7.2% 3.4% 2.1% 1.3% 0.6% 0.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.