Race 11A

north-fall-2-qualifier

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Brendan O'Leary 18.5% 18.9% 14.6% 11.4% 9.8% 7.9% 7.6% 4.1% 3.1% 2.3% 1.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1%
Duncan Howes 16.7% 14.3% 14.5% 11.7% 10.7% 10.6% 8.3% 4.7% 3.8% 2.3% 1.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
Griffin Orr 11.3% 10.6% 11.1% 10.6% 9.7% 11.2% 8.9% 7.7% 7.6% 4.9% 4.3% 1.5% 0.4% 0.2%
Maria Sinagra 9.6% 13.1% 13.1% 9.7% 11.5% 10.2% 9.1% 6.5% 6.9% 5.6% 3.0% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1%
Arielle Morgan 4.1% 4.8% 4.9% 6.1% 9.2% 5.8% 9.0% 9.0% 10.0% 9.6% 11.0% 8.6% 5.5% 2.4%
Benjaim Helfand 4.8% 4.1% 5.5% 5.4% 6.1% 8.7% 8.1% 10.6% 9.3% 9.1% 10.8% 8.9% 6.8% 1.8%
Andrew Beckmann 3.7% 3.5% 4.6% 5.2% 5.2% 6.1% 5.7% 8.9% 8.2% 9.2% 12.1% 13.0% 10.1% 4.5%
Nathan Fast 5.5% 5.8% 6.7% 6.4% 6.6% 8.0% 7.4% 11.7% 8.6% 10.0% 7.9% 7.8% 6.2% 1.4%
Andrew Baransky 3.2% 2.8% 2.4% 3.8% 5.2% 5.1% 3.6% 8.6% 8.7% 10.5% 12.8% 15.1% 11.4% 6.8%
Emily Bicks 4.8% 4.0% 5.9% 7.0% 7.5% 7.0% 8.4% 9.5% 9.8% 10.9% 9.2% 10.0% 4.4% 1.6%
Andrew Murphy 3.5% 3.8% 3.4% 5.4% 5.7% 6.9% 9.2% 6.1% 10.5% 11.0% 11.5% 10.2% 8.5% 4.3%
Rachel Kozicz 0.4% 0.7% 1.1% 1.5% 1.2% 1.1% 2.3% 2.2% 1.7% 3.6% 6.1% 8.5% 19.3% 50.3%
Conor Cashel 13.2% 12.2% 10.5% 13.6% 9.5% 10.1% 9.5% 6.6% 6.6% 3.9% 1.9% 1.7% 0.6% 0.1%
Daniel Christiani 0.7% 1.4% 1.7% 2.2% 2.1% 1.3% 2.9% 3.8% 5.2% 7.1% 6.9% 12.5% 25.8% 26.4%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.