Race 15A

north-fall-2-qualifier

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

35.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Brendan O'Leary 18.4% 19.6% 14.4% 12.3% 9.7% 6.6% 7.3% 4.9% 3.3% 1.7% 0.8% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Andrew Murphy 3.6% 3.9% 6.2% 5.1% 6.7% 5.9% 6.9% 9.1% 8.1% 11.6% 10.5% 11.8% 7.6% 3.0%
Conor Cashel 13.5% 11.6% 10.3% 11.7% 10.9% 10.0% 9.4% 7.3% 6.4% 4.6% 2.6% 0.9% 0.8% 0.0%
Griffin Orr 9.4% 11.6% 10.5% 10.6% 10.6% 12.1% 9.5% 8.0% 6.4% 5.0% 3.9% 1.6% 0.7% 0.1%
Maria Sinagra 9.9% 10.4% 13.8% 11.1% 10.8% 10.9% 9.4% 6.1% 8.3% 4.6% 2.5% 1.1% 0.8% 0.3%
Andrew Beckmann 3.4% 3.0% 3.5% 3.8% 3.8% 5.4% 6.6% 9.7% 6.8% 10.3% 12.1% 13.7% 11.8% 6.1%
Andrew Baransky 3.3% 3.1% 4.0% 4.2% 6.1% 5.2% 4.5% 7.0% 8.5% 9.9% 11.7% 15.2% 12.1% 5.2%
Nathan Fast 5.3% 6.0% 6.4% 7.1% 7.0% 8.1% 7.5% 8.0% 10.7% 8.7% 9.5% 8.9% 5.4% 1.4%
Benjaim Helfand 5.6% 4.0% 4.7% 5.1% 6.4% 6.6% 10.5% 9.2% 11.3% 10.2% 10.9% 8.1% 5.1% 2.3%
Arielle Morgan 4.5% 4.6% 5.4% 5.8% 7.3% 8.2% 8.1% 8.4% 9.8% 12.0% 9.5% 8.6% 5.7% 2.1%
Rachel Kozicz 0.6% 0.9% 1.3% 0.5% 1.0% 1.6% 0.9% 1.9% 3.2% 4.1% 6.4% 8.8% 18.2% 50.6%
Daniel Christiani 0.8% 1.3% 1.4% 2.1% 2.1% 1.5% 2.9% 3.4% 4.1% 6.8% 8.9% 11.1% 26.4% 27.2%
Emily Bicks 5.3% 5.2% 6.3% 6.6% 7.1% 8.6% 7.9% 10.6% 9.5% 8.1% 9.3% 9.0% 4.9% 1.6%
Duncan Howes 16.4% 14.8% 11.8% 14.0% 10.5% 9.3% 8.6% 6.4% 3.6% 2.4% 1.4% 0.7% 0.0% 0.1%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.