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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Columbia University2.43+3.30vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.25+2.59vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.85+0.35vs Predicted
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4Webb Institute1.56+2.51vs Predicted
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5George Washington University0.97+3.20vs Predicted
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6George Washington University2.67-2.20vs Predicted
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7University of Buffalo1.34-0.09vs Predicted
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8Syracuse University0.43+1.51vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.41-1.92vs Predicted
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10Rochester Institute of Technology-0.12+1.01vs Predicted
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11Queen's University1.03-2.91vs Predicted
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13Colgate University0.89-4.60vs Predicted
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14U. S. Military Academy0.00-3.46vs Predicted
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15University of Toronto-1.17-2.28vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.3Columbia University2.430.1%1st Place
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4.59Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.250.1%1st Place
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3.35Cornell University2.850.2%1st Place
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6.51Webb Institute1.560.0%1st Place
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8.2George Washington University0.970.0%1st Place
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3.8George Washington University2.670.2%1st Place
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6.91University of Buffalo1.340.1%1st Place
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9.51Syracuse University0.430.0%1st Place
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7.08U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.410.1%1st Place
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11.01Rochester Institute of Technology-0.120.0%1st Place
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8.09Queen's University1.030.0%1st Place
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8.4Colgate University0.890.0%1st Place
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10.54U. S. Military Academy0.000.0%1st Place
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12.72University of Toronto-1.170.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Irene Jacqz | 14.7% | 15.3% | 14.2% | 14.7% | 11.7% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Nugent | 13.9% | 12.7% | 12.7% | 13.3% | 12.1% | 11.3% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Jennifer Borshoff | 23.6% | 20.0% | 15.3% | 13.9% | 10.4% | 8.1% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Casey Brown | 4.7% | 6.5% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 12.2% | 10.9% | 8.3% | 11.4% | 8.3% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Michael Ince | 3.0% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 11.5% | 10.0% | 6.1% | 2.0% |
| Hannah McNomee | 18.4% | 17.3% | 15.7% | 13.9% | 13.1% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Luke Miller | 5.0% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 8.2% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 0.4% |
| Harmen Rockler | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 10.8% | 14.3% | 14.9% | 13.4% | 6.6% |
| James Gardner | 5.4% | 4.2% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 10.1% | 11.2% | 12.5% | 11.6% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 0.2% |
| Cassaundra Hobbs | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 9.0% | 12.5% | 14.0% | 25.0% | 16.7% |
| Clifton Kartner | 3.1% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 11.3% | 13.6% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 5.9% | 1.1% |
| Jeffrey Gordon | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 12.0% | 10.5% | 11.1% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 7.6% | 2.0% |
| Jack Pinnell | 1.9% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 12.2% | 18.2% | 21.8% | 11.3% |
| Maurice Jakesch | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 5.4% | 8.8% | 14.1% | 59.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.