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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Southern California0.90+3.44vs Predicted
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2San Diego State University0.53+4.27vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.83+2.17vs Predicted
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4University of California at San Diego0.68+1.21vs Predicted
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5Arizona State University0.74+1.25vs Predicted
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6University of California at San Diego-0.70+4.04vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.27+0.56vs Predicted
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8University of California at San Diego-0.42+2.07vs Predicted
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9University of California at San Diego-0.58+0.10vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego-0.33-1.59vs Predicted
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11University of California at San Diego-1.46+1.50vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.45+1.49vs Predicted
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13Arizona State University-0.39-3.56vs Predicted
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14University of California at Los Angeles-1.82-0.45vs Predicted
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15Arizona State University-0.62-5.59vs Predicted
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16Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.80-2.52vs Predicted
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17University of California at Santa Cruz-0.40-8.38vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.44University of Southern California0.9017.5%1st Place
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6.27San Diego State University0.538.6%1st Place
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5.17Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.8313.5%1st Place
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5.21University of California at San Diego0.6812.9%1st Place
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6.25Arizona State University0.749.4%1st Place
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10.04University of California at San Diego-0.703.1%1st Place
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7.56Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.275.8%1st Place
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10.07University of California at San Diego-0.423.2%1st Place
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9.1University of California at San Diego-0.584.0%1st Place
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8.41University of California at San Diego-0.334.9%1st Place
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12.5University of California at San Diego-1.461.5%1st Place
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13.49Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.451.0%1st Place
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9.44Arizona State University-0.393.7%1st Place
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13.55University of California at Los Angeles-1.821.1%1st Place
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9.41Arizona State University-0.624.2%1st Place
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13.48Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.800.9%1st Place
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8.62University of California at Santa Cruz-0.404.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgana Manti | 17.5% | 14.0% | 14.4% | 12.2% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Hopkins | 8.6% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Jack Kisling | 13.5% | 14.0% | 11.2% | 11.1% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Noah Barton | 12.9% | 13.4% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 11.2% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Aidan Boylan | 9.4% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Audra Spokas-jaros | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 2.8% |
| Samuel Groom | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Amanda Brooks | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 2.5% |
| Sean Lipps | 4.0% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 3.1% | 1.2% |
| Sebastien Franck | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 0.9% |
| Jonathan Hickey | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 9.8% | 12.9% | 15.8% | 15.2% |
| Jeffrey Romeo | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 9.7% | 14.1% | 19.4% | 22.7% |
| Sadie Hoberman | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 1.4% |
| Katherine Smith | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 13.2% | 16.0% | 26.8% |
| Gavin Hirz | 4.2% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 1.4% |
| Ryan Schackel | 0.9% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 9.3% | 11.8% | 19.3% | 23.8% |
| Jonas Holdenried | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.