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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.27+6.47vs Predicted
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2University of Southern California-0.01+5.32vs Predicted
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3University of California at San Diego-0.42+6.89vs Predicted
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4San Diego State University0.53+1.97vs Predicted
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5University of California at San Diego-0.70+4.68vs Predicted
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6Arizona State University0.74+0.17vs Predicted
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7University of California at San Diego-1.46+5.50vs Predicted
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8University of California at San Diego-0.58+0.86vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.83-4.18vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego0.68-5.11vs Predicted
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11University of California at San Diego-0.33-3.02vs Predicted
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12Arizona State University-0.39-2.72vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Cruz-0.40-4.67vs Predicted
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14Arizona State University-0.62-4.71vs Predicted
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15Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.45-1.67vs Predicted
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16University of California at Los Angeles-1.82-2.59vs Predicted
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17Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.94-3.21vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.47Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.276.0%1st Place
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7.32University of Southern California-0.018.1%1st Place
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9.89University of California at San Diego-0.423.4%1st Place
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5.97San Diego State University0.5311.8%1st Place
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9.68University of California at San Diego-0.702.8%1st Place
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6.17Arizona State University0.748.9%1st Place
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12.5University of California at San Diego-1.461.7%1st Place
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8.86University of California at San Diego-0.585.1%1st Place
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4.82Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.8314.4%1st Place
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4.89University of California at San Diego0.6814.6%1st Place
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7.98University of California at San Diego-0.336.7%1st Place
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9.28Arizona State University-0.394.2%1st Place
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8.33University of California at Santa Cruz-0.405.1%1st Place
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9.29Arizona State University-0.624.3%1st Place
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13.33Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.450.9%1st Place
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13.41University of California at Los Angeles-1.820.9%1st Place
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13.79Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.941.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samuel Groom | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Eleanor Desai | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Amanda Brooks | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 5.0% | 1.8% |
| Christopher Hopkins | 11.8% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 10.4% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Audra Spokas-jaros | 2.8% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 2.7% |
| Aidan Boylan | 8.9% | 11.2% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Jonathan Hickey | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 10.9% | 13.4% | 16.6% | 13.9% |
| Sean Lipps | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 0.9% |
| Jack Kisling | 14.4% | 13.9% | 14.2% | 11.7% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Noah Barton | 14.6% | 13.8% | 12.3% | 11.5% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sebastien Franck | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Sadie Hoberman | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 4.1% | 1.3% |
| Jonas Holdenried | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| Gavin Hirz | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 2.2% |
| Jeffrey Romeo | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 8.5% | 13.6% | 17.9% | 23.9% |
| Katherine Smith | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 13.2% | 18.3% | 23.1% |
| Marie Friauf | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 9.2% | 11.8% | 18.9% | 28.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.