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📊 Prediction Accuracy
58.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Wisconsin3.31+1.12vs Predicted
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2University of Michigan1.18+3.91vs Predicted
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3University of Minnesota2.25+0.71vs Predicted
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4Marquette University-1.08+6.47vs Predicted
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5Ohio State University0.91+1.57vs Predicted
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6Western Michigan University1.25-0.24vs Predicted
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7University of Chicago0.60+0.15vs Predicted
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8University of Notre Dame1.25-2.26vs Predicted
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10University of Illinois0.38-2.37vs Predicted
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11Denison University-0.41-1.79vs Predicted
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12University of Saint Thomas-0.90-1.76vs Predicted
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13Northwestern University2.38-9.49vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.12University of Wisconsin3.310.4%1st Place
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5.91University of Michigan1.180.0%1st Place
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3.71University of Minnesota2.250.2%1st Place
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10.47Marquette University-1.080.0%1st Place
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6.57Ohio State University0.910.0%1st Place
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5.76Western Michigan University1.250.1%1st Place
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7.15University of Chicago0.600.0%1st Place
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5.74University of Notre Dame1.250.1%1st Place
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7.63University of Illinois0.380.0%1st Place
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9.21Denison University-0.410.0%1st Place
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10.24University of Saint Thomas-0.900.0%1st Place
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3.51Northwestern University2.380.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leif Evensen | 40.4% | 29.7% | 15.8% | 8.4% | 3.8% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Beriont | 4.3% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 12.7% | 12.9% | 12.7% | 13.8% | 12.8% | 9.6% | 6.0% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Matthew Thompson | 15.3% | 16.2% | 19.1% | 16.0% | 13.6% | 10.1% | 5.7% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Colleen Mooney | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 4.6% | 7.9% | 12.0% | 24.8% | 41.5% |
| Adam Gilbertson | 3.1% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 10.9% | 11.5% | 12.8% | 14.1% | 11.7% | 10.1% | 4.2% | 0.9% |
| Aras Karaitis | 6.0% | 6.0% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 11.9% | 13.2% | 15.6% | 11.5% | 8.0% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 0.1% |
| Paul Kaplan | 3.4% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 10.6% | 11.0% | 12.5% | 17.9% | 11.8% | 6.9% | 2.1% |
| Nathaniel Walden | 5.8% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 12.4% | 13.4% | 11.6% | 13.3% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Jamie Gay | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 12.8% | 11.8% | 16.5% | 15.5% | 9.8% | 2.6% |
| William Jaquinde | 0.7% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 8.3% | 11.8% | 19.3% | 23.8% | 15.8% |
| Eric Miller | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 14.2% | 25.3% | 36.5% |
| Geoff Pedrick | 16.9% | 19.4% | 18.4% | 16.3% | 12.3% | 8.9% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.