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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at San Diego0.68+3.82vs Predicted
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2University of California at San Diego-0.58+6.49vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.83+1.86vs Predicted
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4University of California at San Diego-0.70+5.67vs Predicted
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5Arizona State University0.74+0.93vs Predicted
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6San Diego State University0.53-0.18vs Predicted
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7University of Southern California-0.01+0.13vs Predicted
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8University of California at San Diego-0.33-0.28vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.27-2.02vs Predicted
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10Arizona State University-0.39-0.85vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.94+2.36vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Cruz-0.40-3.86vs Predicted
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13University of California at San Diego-1.93+0.51vs Predicted
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14Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.45-0.85vs Predicted
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15University of California at San Diego-1.46-2.93vs Predicted
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16Arizona State University-0.62-6.85vs Predicted
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17University of California at Los Angeles-1.82-3.95vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.82University of California at San Diego0.6815.2%1st Place
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8.49University of California at San Diego-0.584.5%1st Place
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4.86Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.8316.4%1st Place
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9.67University of California at San Diego-0.703.2%1st Place
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5.93Arizona State University0.748.8%1st Place
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5.82San Diego State University0.5310.9%1st Place
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7.13University of Southern California-0.016.4%1st Place
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7.72University of California at San Diego-0.336.3%1st Place
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6.98Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.277.5%1st Place
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9.15Arizona State University-0.393.8%1st Place
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13.36Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.941.3%1st Place
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8.14University of California at Santa Cruz-0.406.0%1st Place
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13.51University of California at San Diego-1.930.9%1st Place
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13.15Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.451.2%1st Place
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12.07University of California at San Diego-1.461.9%1st Place
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9.15Arizona State University-0.624.0%1st Place
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13.05University of California at Los Angeles-1.821.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Barton | 15.2% | 13.2% | 13.4% | 11.8% | 10.1% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sean Lipps | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 1.0% |
| Jack Kisling | 16.4% | 13.0% | 11.9% | 10.3% | 11.3% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Audra Spokas-jaros | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 3.9% | 1.5% |
| Aidan Boylan | 8.8% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Hopkins | 10.9% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Eleanor Desai | 6.4% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Sebastien Franck | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Samuel Groom | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Sadie Hoberman | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 0.9% |
| Marie Friauf | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 10.0% | 13.5% | 18.4% | 21.8% |
| Jonas Holdenried | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Joseph Weil | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 13.6% | 17.3% | 24.3% |
| Jeffrey Romeo | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 10.5% | 14.2% | 16.9% | 18.2% |
| Jonathan Hickey | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 11.8% | 13.4% | 13.6% | 10.7% |
| Gavin Hirz | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 1.1% |
| Katherine Smith | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 14.6% | 16.7% | 19.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.