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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.95+9.22vs Predicted
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2San Diego State University-0.19+3.63vs Predicted
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3University of Southern California0.38+1.22vs Predicted
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4University of California at San Diego-0.51+3.36vs Predicted
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5Arizona State University-0.41+1.45vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Cruz-0.59+1.80vs Predicted
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7University of California at San Diego-0.15-0.49vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.43+2.43vs Predicted
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9University of California at San Diego-0.90-0.55vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego-1.41+0.67vs Predicted
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11University of California at San Diego-1.13-1.56vs Predicted
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12Arizona State University-0.91-3.26vs Predicted
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13University of California at Los Angeles-1.63-1.72vs Predicted
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14Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.94-5.60vs Predicted
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15Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.48-4.39vs Predicted
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16University of California at San Diego-1.72-4.05vs Predicted
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17Arizona State University-2.87-2.18vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.22Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.953.0%1st Place
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5.63San Diego State University-0.1912.8%1st Place
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4.22University of Southern California0.3818.9%1st Place
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7.36University of California at San Diego-0.517.1%1st Place
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6.45Arizona State University-0.418.5%1st Place
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7.8University of California at Santa Cruz-0.596.6%1st Place
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6.51University of California at San Diego-0.158.6%1st Place
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10.43Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.433.5%1st Place
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8.45University of California at San Diego-0.905.2%1st Place
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10.67University of California at San Diego-1.413.0%1st Place
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9.44University of California at San Diego-1.133.6%1st Place
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8.74Arizona State University-0.914.9%1st Place
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11.28University of California at Los Angeles-1.632.1%1st Place
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8.4Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.945.8%1st Place
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10.61Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.483.3%1st Place
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11.95University of California at San Diego-1.722.2%1st Place
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14.82Arizona State University-2.870.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macy Rowe | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 3.8% |
| Morgan Burton | 12.8% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Edward Ansart | 18.9% | 16.7% | 14.5% | 11.9% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Keller | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 0.2% |
| Mitchell Powers | 8.5% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Ryan Martin | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 0.4% |
| Tobie Bloom | 8.6% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Walden Hillegass | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 5.3% |
| Emma Kalway | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 1.1% |
| Cassie Halaszynski | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 5.0% |
| Ian Johnston | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 1.8% |
| Sean Kenealy | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 3.4% | 1.4% |
| Aidan Araoz | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 13.1% | 8.3% |
| Nathan Briar | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 0.9% |
| Colin Thompson | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 5.9% |
| Michael Nodini | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 11.6% | 15.3% | 12.4% |
| Gillian Cate | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 12.2% | 52.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.