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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Michigan1.18+4.96vs Predicted
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2University of Wisconsin3.31+0.11vs Predicted
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3University of Notre Dame1.25+2.77vs Predicted
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4University of Minnesota2.25-0.28vs Predicted
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5Northwestern University2.38-1.55vs Predicted
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6Western Michigan University1.25-0.24vs Predicted
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7Ohio State University0.91-0.58vs Predicted
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8Marquette University-1.08+2.37vs Predicted
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10University of Chicago0.60-2.87vs Predicted
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11Denison University-0.41-1.75vs Predicted
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12University of Illinois0.38-4.13vs Predicted
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13University of Saint Thomas-0.90-2.81vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.96University of Michigan1.180.0%1st Place
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2.11University of Wisconsin3.310.4%1st Place
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5.77University of Notre Dame1.250.1%1st Place
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3.72University of Minnesota2.250.1%1st Place
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3.45Northwestern University2.380.2%1st Place
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5.76Western Michigan University1.250.0%1st Place
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6.42Ohio State University0.910.0%1st Place
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10.37Marquette University-1.080.0%1st Place
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7.13University of Chicago0.600.0%1st Place
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9.25Denison University-0.410.0%1st Place
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7.87University of Illinois0.380.0%1st Place
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10.19University of Saint Thomas-0.900.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lauren Beriont | 4.5% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 11.0% | 14.6% | 14.6% | 13.8% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 2.2% | 0.5% |
| Leif Evensen | 42.7% | 26.4% | 16.4% | 8.2% | 4.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Walden | 5.4% | 6.4% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 12.3% | 13.5% | 14.6% | 12.9% | 8.8% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 0.3% |
| Matthew Thompson | 14.1% | 18.1% | 18.8% | 16.6% | 14.0% | 8.0% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Geoff Pedrick | 17.5% | 20.8% | 18.7% | 15.7% | 11.2% | 7.5% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aras Karaitis | 4.7% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 13.6% | 13.8% | 12.9% | 10.7% | 8.9% | 5.8% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Adam Gilbertson | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 11.3% | 13.1% | 12.3% | 12.5% | 8.9% | 4.1% | 0.7% |
| Colleen Mooney | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 6.3% | 13.3% | 21.8% | 42.8% |
| Paul Kaplan | 2.8% | 2.5% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 11.9% | 13.0% | 14.7% | 15.8% | 10.9% | 6.7% | 1.4% |
| William Jaquinde | 0.7% | 1.3% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 7.9% | 13.0% | 19.3% | 23.5% | 16.0% |
| Jamie Gay | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 14.0% | 16.1% | 17.2% | 10.0% | 4.7% |
| Eric Miller | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 8.1% | 15.2% | 27.8% | 33.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.