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📊 Prediction Accuracy
37.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.78+3.71vs Predicted
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2San Diego State University1.47+4.06vs Predicted
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3Stanford University1.64+2.25vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California1.71+1.28vs Predicted
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5California Poly Maritime Academy0.53+3.08vs Predicted
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6University of California at Berkeley0.86+1.54vs Predicted
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7University of Washington-2.55+0.34vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.22+1.77vs Predicted
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9University of Hawaii1.31-2.96vs Predicted
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10Arizona State University-0.39+2.57vs Predicted
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11University of Oregon0.11-0.15vs Predicted
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12Western Washington University1.33-6.11vs Predicted
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13University of California at San Diego0.42-3.45vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Cruz0.86-4.98vs Predicted
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15California State University Channel Islands-1.54-0.56vs Predicted
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16Santa Clara University-1.38-2.38vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.71University of California at Santa Barbara1.7815.6%1st Place
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6.06San Diego State University1.478.8%1st Place
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5.25Stanford University1.6412.8%1st Place
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5.28University of Southern California1.7112.7%1st Place
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8.08California Poly Maritime Academy0.535.1%1st Place
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7.54University of California at Berkeley0.865.9%1st Place
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7.34University of Washington-2.556.9%1st Place
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9.77Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.222.6%1st Place
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6.04University of Hawaii1.318.3%1st Place
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12.57Arizona State University-0.391.1%1st Place
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10.85University of Oregon0.112.7%1st Place
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5.89Western Washington University1.3310.2%1st Place
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9.55University of California at San Diego0.423.0%1st Place
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9.02University of California at Santa Cruz0.862.9%1st Place
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14.44California State University Channel Islands-1.540.5%1st Place
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13.62Santa Clara University-1.381.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Seawards | 15.6% | 14.1% | 11.6% | 11.9% | 10.8% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Aston Smith | 8.8% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Whidden | 12.8% | 11.7% | 10.4% | 10.9% | 10.5% | 10.7% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Hudson Mayfield | 12.7% | 11.1% | 11.2% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sam Jennings | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Carsten Zieger | 5.9% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Maxwell Miller | 6.9% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 2.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Parker Ziegler | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 11.9% | 11.0% | 11.9% | 5.5% | 1.1% |
| Everett McAvoy | 8.3% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sadie Hoberman | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 19.1% | 21.4% | 14.8% |
| Emily Avey | 2.7% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 11.0% | 14.3% | 14.7% | 11.6% | 3.6% |
| Adam Turloff | 10.2% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Mitchel Sanford | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 5.0% | 0.9% |
| Blake Roberts | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 7.4% | 3.5% | 0.5% |
| Brent Lin | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 6.8% | 10.1% | 21.7% | 48.5% |
| Chase VanDerveer | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 8.5% | 13.5% | 27.1% | 29.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.