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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.14+3.80vs Predicted
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2University of Hawaii2.07+2.85vs Predicted
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3University of Hawaii3.29-0.40vs Predicted
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4California Poly Maritime Academy2.25+0.59vs Predicted
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5California State University Monterey Bay1.63+0.90vs Predicted
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6University of California at Los Angeles1.83-0.57vs Predicted
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7Stanford University2.02-2.22vs Predicted
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8California State University Channel Islands0.37+0.51vs Predicted
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9California State University Monterey Bay1.63-3.10vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Cruz0.86-2.37vs Predicted
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11University of Oregon0.76-3.29vs Predicted
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12University of Oregon-0.03-2.80vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.8University of California at Santa Barbara2.140.1%1st Place
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4.85University of Hawaii2.070.1%1st Place
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2.6University of Hawaii3.290.3%1st Place
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4.59California Poly Maritime Academy2.250.1%1st Place
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5.9California State University Monterey Bay1.630.1%1st Place
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5.43University of California at Los Angeles1.830.1%1st Place
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4.78Stanford University2.020.1%1st Place
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8.51California State University Channel Islands0.370.0%1st Place
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5.9California State University Monterey Bay1.630.1%1st Place
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7.63University of California at Santa Cruz0.860.0%1st Place
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7.71University of Oregon0.760.0%1st Place
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9.2University of Oregon-0.030.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Stokes | 9.2% | 10.7% | 14.9% | 12.7% | 12.5% | 12.5% | 12.7% | 8.3% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Hanne Nagatani | 10.6% | 11.3% | 12.8% | 12.1% | 13.6% | 12.0% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| James Foster | 32.7% | 25.6% | 16.0% | 12.1% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Van Rensselaer | 11.2% | 12.8% | 12.2% | 14.8% | 14.2% | 11.1% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Mark Hurdle | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 9.7% | 13.9% | 11.7% | 10.7% | 7.7% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| Emelia Pelliccio | 7.9% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 11.4% | 12.6% | 12.1% | 11.6% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 5.3% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Max Kohrman | 11.4% | 11.8% | 13.0% | 13.7% | 10.4% | 12.1% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 5.5% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Jeffrey Tedmori | 2.3% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 11.8% | 13.2% | 20.6% | 26.7% | 0.0% |
| Mark Hurdle | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 9.7% | 13.9% | 11.7% | 10.7% | 7.7% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| Alex Verdoia | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 13.7% | 19.1% | 17.5% | 11.6% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Fritsen | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 10.0% | 11.1% | 16.0% | 18.8% | 14.6% | 0.0% |
| Kaili Swetland | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 8.3% | 11.4% | 21.1% | 40.9% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.