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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.14+3.80vs Predicted
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2University of Hawaii3.29+0.47vs Predicted
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3California Poly Maritime Academy2.25+1.61vs Predicted
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4California State University Monterey Bay1.63+2.03vs Predicted
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5University of California at Los Angeles1.83+0.41vs Predicted
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6Stanford University2.02-1.00vs Predicted
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7University of Hawaii2.07-2.30vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Cruz0.86-0.53vs Predicted
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9California State University Monterey Bay1.63-2.97vs Predicted
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10California State University Channel Islands0.37-1.38vs Predicted
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11University of Oregon0.76-3.27vs Predicted
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12University of Oregon-0.03-2.84vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.8University of California at Santa Barbara2.140.1%1st Place
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2.47University of Hawaii3.290.4%1st Place
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4.61California Poly Maritime Academy2.250.1%1st Place
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6.03California State University Monterey Bay1.630.1%1st Place
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5.41University of California at Los Angeles1.830.1%1st Place
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5.0Stanford University2.020.1%1st Place
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4.7University of Hawaii2.070.1%1st Place
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7.47University of California at Santa Cruz0.860.0%1st Place
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6.03California State University Monterey Bay1.630.1%1st Place
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8.62California State University Channel Islands0.370.0%1st Place
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7.73University of Oregon0.760.0%1st Place
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9.16University of Oregon-0.030.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Stokes | 8.7% | 12.0% | 13.5% | 12.8% | 13.6% | 12.8% | 11.9% | 7.7% | 4.7% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| James Foster | 36.1% | 24.8% | 15.8% | 11.4% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Van Rensselaer | 11.0% | 12.0% | 13.7% | 14.1% | 12.5% | 12.9% | 10.3% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Mark Hurdle | 6.1% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 11.1% | 12.6% | 12.6% | 13.4% | 11.2% | 6.5% | 3.0% | 0.0% |
| Emelia Pelliccio | 8.0% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 12.1% | 10.7% | 11.6% | 11.9% | 10.5% | 8.3% | 5.6% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Max Kohrman | 10.1% | 10.8% | 11.5% | 12.7% | 13.1% | 12.1% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 3.5% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Hanne Nagatani | 10.8% | 12.4% | 13.7% | 12.3% | 13.5% | 10.8% | 11.5% | 7.7% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Alex Verdoia | 3.9% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 13.4% | 15.3% | 17.9% | 11.1% | 0.0% |
| Mark Hurdle | 6.1% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 11.1% | 12.6% | 12.6% | 13.4% | 11.2% | 6.5% | 3.0% | 0.0% |
| Jeffrey Tedmori | 1.7% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 10.5% | 15.7% | 20.1% | 29.2% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Fritsen | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 10.6% | 12.4% | 17.1% | 18.6% | 13.5% | 0.0% |
| Kaili Swetland | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 8.3% | 11.9% | 21.9% | 39.5% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.