Race 3A

ocean-county-spring-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Stewart Gurnell 23.2% 22.1% 17.1% 12.9% 9.7% 6.0% 4.0% 2.3% 1.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Cole Bender 11.5% 13.0% 11.2% 11.2% 11.6% 10.4% 9.9% 8.9% 4.3% 4.2% 2.4% 0.9% 0.4%
Valerio Palamara 21.1% 18.0% 16.7% 12.3% 11.3% 7.2% 5.4% 4.1% 2.2% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0%
Patrick Cashin 5.8% 4.8% 5.5% 6.5% 6.3% 7.6% 9.3% 9.4% 10.1% 10.0% 9.6% 8.4% 6.8%
Maxwell Penders 4.9% 6.2% 6.4% 7.1% 8.5% 9.8% 8.8% 10.0% 9.8% 9.7% 7.8% 6.9% 4.0%
Brendan Strein 4.6% 6.8% 6.5% 7.1% 7.6% 9.6% 8.5% 7.8% 10.2% 9.7% 9.4% 8.0% 4.4%
Abby Eckert 3.4% 4.7% 5.0% 5.8% 6.2% 6.6% 8.6% 8.9% 9.2% 11.6% 10.7% 10.8% 8.7%
Alexa Whitman 8.8% 8.0% 10.6% 11.2% 11.1% 10.9% 8.9% 9.6% 8.6% 5.4% 4.0% 2.4% 0.5%
Bryan Lawrence 6.3% 6.3% 6.7% 7.8% 8.3% 10.0% 10.3% 10.1% 9.7% 8.5% 7.3% 5.9% 2.8%
Anish Jayewardene 3.1% 3.5% 4.3% 5.3% 5.6% 7.3% 7.4% 8.3% 8.5% 10.5% 12.2% 11.9% 11.9%
Henry Jensen 1.9% 2.1% 2.8% 2.9% 4.0% 4.5% 5.9% 6.0% 7.2% 9.6% 12.3% 15.3% 25.6%
Keaton Rose 2.5% 2.8% 3.6% 5.2% 5.0% 5.7% 6.9% 6.5% 10.0% 9.8% 11.3% 14.1% 16.5%
Nathaniel Adams 2.9% 1.8% 3.9% 4.5% 5.0% 4.4% 6.0% 8.0% 8.6% 9.6% 11.9% 15.0% 18.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.