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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Washington College1.76+10.75vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.89+5.66vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.32+3.14vs Predicted
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4University of Virginia3.54+1.35vs Predicted
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5Fordham University4.26-1.45vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College2.63+2.50vs Predicted
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7Columbia University2.55+1.88vs Predicted
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8Stevens Institute of Technology2.02+2.99vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy2.99-1.91vs Predicted
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10George Washington University2.38-0.65vs Predicted
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11Rutgers University0.75+4.11vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania2.68-3.38vs Predicted
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13Cornell University1.74-1.38vs Predicted
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14Old Dominion University3.20-7.43vs Predicted
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15Princeton University0.31+0.95vs Predicted
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17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.62-4.78vs Predicted
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18Queen's University0.63-2.75vs Predicted
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19Ocean County College-0.11-1.96vs Predicted
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20U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.57-11.65vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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11.75Washington College1.760.0%1st Place
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7.66St. Mary's College of Maryland2.890.1%1st Place
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6.14Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.320.1%1st Place
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5.35University of Virginia3.540.1%1st Place
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3.55Fordham University4.260.2%1st Place
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8.5SUNY Maritime College2.630.1%1st Place
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8.88Columbia University2.550.1%1st Place
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10.99Stevens Institute of Technology2.020.0%1st Place
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7.09U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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9.35George Washington University2.380.0%1st Place
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15.11Rutgers University0.750.0%1st Place
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8.62University of Pennsylvania2.680.0%1st Place
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11.62Cornell University1.740.0%1st Place
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6.57Old Dominion University3.200.1%1st Place
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15.95Princeton University0.310.0%1st Place
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12.22U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.620.0%1st Place
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15.25Queen's University0.630.0%1st Place
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17.04Ocean County College-0.110.0%1st Place
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8.35U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.570.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Heist | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 11.1% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 1.1% |
| Don Hause III | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Elliott Morrill | 10.3% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 10.7% | 13.4% | 10.7% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Olin Paine | 20.5% | 20.3% | 19.1% | 11.5% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Julia Paxton | 6.2% | 3.6% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Conor Cashel | 5.3% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Christian Geary | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 0.9% |
| George Prieto | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Ian Connors | 4.1% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Courtney Williams | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 13.3% | 20.4% | 15.3% | 13.3% |
| Michael Russom | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Colin Keil | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 11.3% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 3.8% | 1.5% |
| Daniel LOCHNER | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 10.9% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Adrija Navarro | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 10.9% | 12.1% | 21.1% | 26.7% |
| Thomas Greathouse | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 11.6% | 9.0% | 6.2% | 1.8% |
| Jonah Burke-Kleinman | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 17.5% | 20.2% | 15.2% |
| Michael Suchernick | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 7.5% | 13.0% | 22.9% | 39.2% |
| Robert Boger | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.