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📊 Prediction Accuracy
21.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.32+5.08vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.89+5.61vs Predicted
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3University of Virginia3.54+2.42vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.99+3.17vs Predicted
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5George Washington University2.38+4.74vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University3.20-0.60vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania2.68+0.33vs Predicted
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9Washington College1.76+2.93vs Predicted
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10Cornell University1.74+1.61vs Predicted
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11Stevens Institute of Technology2.02-0.23vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College2.63-3.42vs Predicted
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13Princeton University0.31+3.35vs Predicted
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14Fordham University4.26-10.62vs Predicted
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15Columbia University2.55-6.10vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.57-7.34vs Predicted
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17Rutgers University0.75-2.07vs Predicted
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18Queen's University0.63-2.74vs Predicted
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19U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.62-6.85vs Predicted
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20Ocean County College-0.11-3.26vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.08Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.320.1%1st Place
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7.61St. Mary's College of Maryland2.890.1%1st Place
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5.42University of Virginia3.540.1%1st Place
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7.17U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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9.74George Washington University2.380.0%1st Place
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6.4Old Dominion University3.200.1%1st Place
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8.33University of Pennsylvania2.680.0%1st Place
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11.93Washington College1.760.0%1st Place
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11.61Cornell University1.740.0%1st Place
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10.77Stevens Institute of Technology2.020.0%1st Place
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8.58SUNY Maritime College2.630.0%1st Place
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16.35Princeton University0.310.0%1st Place
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3.38Fordham University4.260.3%1st Place
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8.9Columbia University2.550.1%1st Place
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8.66U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.570.0%1st Place
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14.93Rutgers University0.750.0%1st Place
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15.26Queen's University0.630.0%1st Place
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12.15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.620.0%1st Place
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16.74Ocean County College-0.110.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elliott Morrill | 8.4% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 10.8% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Don Hause III | 5.3% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 12.5% | 11.7% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| George Prieto | 6.6% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ian Connors | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| Daniel LOCHNER | 10.0% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Russom | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Heist | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 12.0% | 7.9% | 4.8% | 1.6% |
| Colin Keil | 1.8% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 9.3% | 11.4% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 4.0% | 1.4% |
| Christian Geary | 2.9% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 0.4% |
| Julia Paxton | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Adrija Navarro | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 9.2% | 16.1% | 21.5% | 29.0% |
| Olin Paine | 25.2% | 19.6% | 17.4% | 11.9% | 8.4% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conor Cashel | 5.1% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Robert Boger | 4.5% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Courtney Williams | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 14.3% | 17.2% | 18.2% | 10.9% |
| Jonah Burke-Kleinman | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 10.9% | 15.4% | 20.6% | 16.2% |
| Thomas Greathouse | 1.6% | 1.1% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 11.5% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 5.0% | 1.9% |
| Michael Suchernick | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 9.5% | 11.9% | 21.0% | 37.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.