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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University4.26+2.44vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.68+6.35vs Predicted
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3University of Virginia3.54+2.39vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University3.20+2.40vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.32+1.23vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.99+1.16vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College2.63+1.58vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland2.89-0.26vs Predicted
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9Rutgers University0.75+5.78vs Predicted
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10Cornell University1.74+1.81vs Predicted
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11Stevens Institute of Technology2.02-0.13vs Predicted
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12George Washington University2.38-2.25vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.57-4.45vs Predicted
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14Columbia University2.55-5.07vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.62-2.88vs Predicted
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16Washington College1.76-4.33vs Predicted
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17Princeton University0.31-0.95vs Predicted
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19Ocean County College-0.11-1.93vs Predicted
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20Queen's University0.63-4.90vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.44Fordham University4.260.2%1st Place
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8.35University of Pennsylvania2.680.1%1st Place
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5.39University of Virginia3.540.1%1st Place
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6.4Old Dominion University3.200.1%1st Place
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6.23Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.320.1%1st Place
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7.16U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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8.58SUNY Maritime College2.630.0%1st Place
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7.74St. Mary's College of Maryland2.890.1%1st Place
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14.78Rutgers University0.750.0%1st Place
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11.81Cornell University1.740.0%1st Place
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10.87Stevens Institute of Technology2.020.0%1st Place
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9.75George Washington University2.380.0%1st Place
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8.55U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.570.1%1st Place
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8.93Columbia University2.550.0%1st Place
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12.12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.620.0%1st Place
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11.67Washington College1.760.0%1st Place
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16.05Princeton University0.310.0%1st Place
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17.07Ocean County College-0.110.0%1st Place
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15.1Queen's University0.630.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olin Paine | 24.3% | 20.5% | 14.8% | 13.7% | 9.2% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Russom | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 11.4% | 12.5% | 11.3% | 10.4% | 11.4% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daniel LOCHNER | 9.0% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Elliott Morrill | 7.7% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| George Prieto | 7.1% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Julia Paxton | 4.4% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Don Hause III | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Courtney Williams | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 12.6% | 13.5% | 19.6% | 12.7% |
| Colin Keil | 2.2% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 11.4% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 4.5% | 1.0% |
| Christian Geary | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| Ian Connors | 2.6% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Robert Boger | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 6.0% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Conor Cashel | 4.9% | 3.3% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Greathouse | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 12.0% | 10.4% | 5.4% | 2.1% |
| Thomas Heist | 1.7% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 7.3% | 4.4% | 1.0% |
| Adrija Navarro | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 13.4% | 23.0% | 26.4% |
| Michael Suchernick | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 7.2% | 14.6% | 17.9% | 42.8% |
| Jonah Burke-Kleinman | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 8.7% | 11.8% | 16.1% | 20.5% | 13.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.