← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Fordham University4.26+2.48vs Predicted
-
2Old Dominion University3.20+4.49vs Predicted
-
3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.32+3.11vs Predicted
-
4U. S. Naval Academy2.99+3.18vs Predicted
-
5Stevens Institute of Technology2.02+6.04vs Predicted
-
6University of Virginia3.54-0.63vs Predicted
-
7University of Pennsylvania2.68+1.39vs Predicted
-
8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.57+0.92vs Predicted
-
9SUNY Maritime College2.63-0.62vs Predicted
-
10Columbia University2.55-1.33vs Predicted
-
11Washington College1.76+0.74vs Predicted
-
13Cornell University1.74-0.85vs Predicted
-
14George Washington University2.38-4.79vs Predicted
-
15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.62-2.62vs Predicted
-
16Rutgers University0.75-1.21vs Predicted
-
17St. Mary's College of Maryland2.89-9.56vs Predicted
-
18Princeton University0.31-1.94vs Predicted
-
19Queen's University0.63-3.62vs Predicted
-
20Ocean County College-0.11-3.20vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
3.48Fordham University4.260.2%1st Place
-
6.49Old Dominion University3.200.1%1st Place
-
6.11Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.320.1%1st Place
-
7.18U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
-
11.04Stevens Institute of Technology2.020.0%1st Place
-
5.37University of Virginia3.540.1%1st Place
-
8.39University of Pennsylvania2.680.1%1st Place
-
8.92U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.570.0%1st Place
-
8.38SUNY Maritime College2.630.0%1st Place
-
8.67Columbia University2.550.0%1st Place
-
11.74Washington College1.760.0%1st Place
-
12.15Cornell University1.740.0%1st Place
-
9.21George Washington University2.380.0%1st Place
-
12.38U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.620.0%1st Place
-
14.79Rutgers University0.750.0%1st Place
-
7.44St. Mary's College of Maryland2.890.1%1st Place
-
16.06Princeton University0.310.0%1st Place
-
15.38Queen's University0.630.0%1st Place
-
16.8Ocean County College-0.110.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olin Paine | 23.9% | 19.3% | 15.8% | 14.7% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daniel LOCHNER | 8.4% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elliott Morrill | 10.0% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| George Prieto | 5.3% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christian Geary | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 10.6% | 8.5% | 5.5% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 12.8% | 12.3% | 11.5% | 10.9% | 10.8% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Russom | 5.1% | 4.1% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Robert Boger | 4.9% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Julia Paxton | 4.5% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 8.7% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Conor Cashel | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Heist | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 7.9% | 4.0% | 1.0% |
| Colin Keil | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 11.9% | 12.5% | 9.3% | 3.9% | 1.1% |
| Ian Connors | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Thomas Greathouse | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 12.4% | 9.9% | 6.4% | 1.4% |
| Courtney Williams | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 6.4% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 15.2% | 18.4% | 13.1% |
| Don Hause III | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 4.7% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Adrija Navarro | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 8.4% | 15.5% | 21.7% | 26.8% |
| Jonah Burke-Kleinman | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 14.1% | 15.4% | 18.9% | 15.5% |
| Michael Suchernick | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 12.5% | 21.6% | 39.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.