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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.99+6.24vs Predicted
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2University of Virginia3.54+3.42vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.57+5.79vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.68+4.32vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.32+1.29vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University3.20+0.39vs Predicted
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7Washington College1.76+4.82vs Predicted
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8George Washington University2.38+1.67vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College2.63-0.65vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland2.89-2.58vs Predicted
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11Columbia University2.55-2.19vs Predicted
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12Cornell University1.74+0.17vs Predicted
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14Rutgers University0.75+0.80vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.62-2.63vs Predicted
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16Princeton University0.31-0.08vs Predicted
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17Queen's University0.63-1.74vs Predicted
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18Ocean County College-0.11-1.09vs Predicted
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19Stevens Institute of Technology2.02-8.26vs Predicted
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20Fordham University4.26-16.69vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.24U. S. Naval Academy2.990.0%1st Place
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5.42University of Virginia3.540.1%1st Place
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8.79U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.570.0%1st Place
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8.32University of Pennsylvania2.680.0%1st Place
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6.29Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.320.1%1st Place
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6.39Old Dominion University3.200.1%1st Place
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11.82Washington College1.760.0%1st Place
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9.67George Washington University2.380.0%1st Place
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8.35SUNY Maritime College2.630.1%1st Place
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7.42St. Mary's College of Maryland2.890.1%1st Place
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8.81Columbia University2.550.0%1st Place
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12.17Cornell University1.740.0%1st Place
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14.8Rutgers University0.750.0%1st Place
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12.37U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.620.0%1st Place
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15.92Princeton University0.310.0%1st Place
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15.26Queen's University0.630.0%1st Place
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16.91Ocean County College-0.110.0%1st Place
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10.74Stevens Institute of Technology2.020.0%1st Place
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3.31Fordham University4.260.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Prieto | 4.9% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 12.8% | 10.5% | 12.9% | 10.4% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Robert Boger | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Michael Russom | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Elliott Morrill | 7.3% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 12.0% | 11.1% | 7.7% | 10.0% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daniel LOCHNER | 9.8% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Heist | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 12.2% | 6.8% | 4.0% | 1.5% |
| Ian Connors | 4.2% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Julia Paxton | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Don Hause III | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Conor Cashel | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Colin Keil | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 11.1% | 12.2% | 11.9% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 1.2% |
| Courtney Williams | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 12.5% | 16.8% | 18.6% | 11.5% |
| Thomas Greathouse | 2.0% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 12.1% | 12.0% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 1.3% |
| Adrija Navarro | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 14.0% | 21.3% | 25.8% |
| Jonah Burke-Kleinman | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 11.6% | 17.9% | 20.4% | 14.2% |
| Michael Suchernick | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 11.5% | 19.1% | 43.7% |
| Christian Geary | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| Olin Paine | 25.7% | 21.3% | 16.8% | 10.6% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.