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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.89+6.10vs Predicted
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2Fordham University4.26+1.16vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.57+5.21vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.68+3.48vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University3.20+0.82vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College2.63+1.79vs Predicted
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7Washington College1.76+3.83vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.32-2.59vs Predicted
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9George Washington University2.38-0.41vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy2.99-3.27vs Predicted
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11Stevens Institute of Technology2.02-0.86vs Predicted
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12Columbia University2.55-3.66vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.62-1.77vs Predicted
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15Cornell University1.74-4.29vs Predicted
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16Rutgers University0.75-1.99vs Predicted
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17Princeton University0.31-1.81vs Predicted
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18Queen's University0.63-3.58vs Predicted
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19Ocean County College-0.11-3.15vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.890.1%1st Place
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3.16Fordham University4.260.2%1st Place
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8.21U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.570.0%1st Place
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7.48University of Pennsylvania2.680.1%1st Place
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5.82Old Dominion University3.200.1%1st Place
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7.79SUNY Maritime College2.630.1%1st Place
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10.83Washington College1.760.0%1st Place
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5.41Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.320.1%1st Place
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8.59George Washington University2.380.0%1st Place
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6.73U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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10.14Stevens Institute of Technology2.020.0%1st Place
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8.34Columbia University2.550.1%1st Place
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11.23U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.620.0%1st Place
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10.71Cornell University1.740.0%1st Place
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14.01Rutgers University0.750.0%1st Place
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15.19Princeton University0.310.0%1st Place
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14.42Queen's University0.630.0%1st Place
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15.85Ocean County College-0.110.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Don Hause III | 7.0% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Olin Paine | 24.3% | 23.1% | 17.4% | 11.8% | 10.6% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Robert Boger | 3.8% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Michael Russom | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Daniel LOCHNER | 11.0% | 11.0% | 10.7% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Julia Paxton | 5.6% | 4.6% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Thomas Heist | 2.3% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 11.4% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 4.0% | 1.5% |
| Elliott Morrill | 11.2% | 12.9% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Connors | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| George Prieto | 8.6% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 6.5% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christian Geary | 3.4% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 2.3% | 1.1% |
| Conor Cashel | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Greathouse | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 9.6% | 11.5% | 11.5% | 8.6% | 4.8% | 2.1% |
| Colin Keil | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 1.7% |
| Courtney Williams | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 12.0% | 19.6% | 15.6% | 12.6% |
| Adrija Navarro | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 11.0% | 14.3% | 23.7% | 25.2% |
| Jonah Burke-Kleinman | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 13.2% | 16.7% | 19.9% | 16.1% |
| Michael Suchernick | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 7.0% | 12.0% | 23.4% | 39.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.