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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.99+5.70vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University3.20+3.98vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania2.68+4.78vs Predicted
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4Columbia University2.55+3.92vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.32+0.46vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College2.63+1.80vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland2.89-0.19vs Predicted
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8George Washington University2.38+0.54vs Predicted
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9Rutgers University0.75+5.08vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.57-1.81vs Predicted
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11Stevens Institute of Technology2.02-0.86vs Predicted
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12Cornell University1.74-0.78vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.62-1.79vs Predicted
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15Princeton University0.31-0.06vs Predicted
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16Fordham University4.26-12.90vs Predicted
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17Ocean County College-0.11-0.98vs Predicted
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18Queen's University0.63-3.56vs Predicted
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19Washington College1.76-8.34vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.7U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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5.98Old Dominion University3.200.1%1st Place
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7.78University of Pennsylvania2.680.1%1st Place
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7.92Columbia University2.550.0%1st Place
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5.46Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.320.1%1st Place
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7.8SUNY Maritime College2.630.1%1st Place
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6.81St. Mary's College of Maryland2.890.1%1st Place
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8.54George Washington University2.380.0%1st Place
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14.08Rutgers University0.750.0%1st Place
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8.19U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.570.1%1st Place
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10.14Stevens Institute of Technology2.020.0%1st Place
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11.22Cornell University1.740.0%1st Place
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11.21U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.620.0%1st Place
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14.94Princeton University0.310.0%1st Place
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3.1Fordham University4.260.3%1st Place
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16.02Ocean County College-0.110.0%1st Place
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14.44Queen's University0.630.0%1st Place
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10.66Washington College1.760.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Prieto | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Daniel LOCHNER | 7.3% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 10.6% | 11.5% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Michael Russom | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Conor Cashel | 4.3% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Elliott Morrill | 11.5% | 12.3% | 11.3% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Julia Paxton | 6.1% | 4.1% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Don Hause III | 6.9% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Ian Connors | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Courtney Williams | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 11.9% | 17.8% | 20.5% | 10.4% |
| Robert Boger | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Christian Geary | 3.2% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 0.7% |
| Colin Keil | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 14.5% | 8.5% | 4.8% | 1.6% |
| Thomas Greathouse | 2.6% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 11.0% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 5.7% | 1.7% |
| Adrija Navarro | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 13.2% | 23.8% | 22.7% |
| Olin Paine | 28.0% | 22.8% | 15.0% | 12.2% | 7.9% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Suchernick | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 7.7% | 11.6% | 18.3% | 44.9% |
| Jonah Burke-Kleinman | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 8.0% | 10.6% | 20.1% | 17.7% | 16.9% |
| Thomas Heist | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 11.1% | 10.8% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 4.1% | 0.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.