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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.32+4.40vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University3.20+3.71vs Predicted
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3Washington College1.76+7.94vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.68+3.29vs Predicted
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5Columbia University2.55+2.77vs Predicted
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6Fordham University3.11-0.08vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland2.89-0.39vs Predicted
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8Stevens Institute of Technology2.02+1.72vs Predicted
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9Cornell University1.74+1.79vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College2.63-2.24vs Predicted
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11U. S. Naval Academy2.99-4.54vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.62-0.51vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.57-5.35vs Predicted
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14George Washington University2.38-5.81vs Predicted
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16Queen's University0.63-1.68vs Predicted
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17Princeton University0.31-1.84vs Predicted
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18Ocean County College-0.11-2.00vs Predicted
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19Rutgers University0.75-5.19vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.4Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.320.1%1st Place
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5.71Old Dominion University3.200.1%1st Place
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10.94Washington College1.760.0%1st Place
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7.29University of Pennsylvania2.680.1%1st Place
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7.77Columbia University2.550.1%1st Place
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5.92Fordham University3.110.1%1st Place
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6.61St. Mary's College of Maryland2.890.1%1st Place
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9.72Stevens Institute of Technology2.020.0%1st Place
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10.79Cornell University1.740.0%1st Place
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7.76SUNY Maritime College2.630.1%1st Place
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6.46U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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11.49U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.620.0%1st Place
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7.65U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.570.1%1st Place
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8.19George Washington University2.380.1%1st Place
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14.32Queen's University0.630.0%1st Place
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15.16Princeton University0.310.0%1st Place
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16.0Ocean County College-0.110.0%1st Place
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13.81Rutgers University0.750.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elliott Morrill | 12.6% | 11.4% | 12.6% | 10.7% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daniel LOCHNER | 10.0% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 11.0% | 11.7% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Heist | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 11.2% | 11.9% | 10.1% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 0.9% |
| Michael Russom | 8.0% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Conor Cashel | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Connor Godfrey | 10.1% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Don Hause III | 9.3% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Christian Geary | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 4.6% | 2.0% | 0.4% |
| Colin Keil | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 11.0% | 10.8% | 6.9% | 4.0% | 1.0% |
| Julia Paxton | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| George Prieto | 9.1% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Greathouse | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 12.6% | 9.5% | 6.2% | 2.6% |
| Robert Boger | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Ian Connors | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Jonah Burke-Kleinman | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 6.6% | 9.7% | 11.3% | 16.8% | 19.7% | 15.1% |
| Adrija Navarro | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 6.4% | 9.8% | 16.6% | 21.5% | 26.3% |
| Michael Suchernick | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 3.8% | 6.6% | 11.9% | 20.3% | 43.6% |
| Courtney Williams | 1.7% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 9.5% | 12.1% | 17.9% | 18.5% | 9.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.