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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Columbia University2.55+7.01vs Predicted
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2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.57+5.96vs Predicted
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3Fordham University3.11+3.01vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University3.20+1.46vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.32+0.16vs Predicted
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6Stevens Institute of Technology2.02+3.81vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.62+4.24vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania2.68-0.69vs Predicted
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9Princeton University0.31+6.11vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland2.89-3.15vs Predicted
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12Washington College1.76-1.13vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College2.63-5.12vs Predicted
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14U. S. Naval Academy2.99-7.87vs Predicted
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15Rutgers University0.75-1.27vs Predicted
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16George Washington University2.38-7.59vs Predicted
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17Cornell University1.74-6.12vs Predicted
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18Queen's University0.63-3.61vs Predicted
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19Ocean County College-0.11-3.20vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.01Columbia University2.550.1%1st Place
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7.96U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.570.1%1st Place
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6.01Fordham University3.110.1%1st Place
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5.46Old Dominion University3.200.1%1st Place
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5.16Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.320.2%1st Place
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9.81Stevens Institute of Technology2.020.0%1st Place
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11.24U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.620.0%1st Place
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7.31University of Pennsylvania2.680.1%1st Place
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15.11Princeton University0.310.0%1st Place
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6.85St. Mary's College of Maryland2.890.1%1st Place
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10.87Washington College1.760.0%1st Place
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7.88SUNY Maritime College2.630.1%1st Place
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6.13U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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13.73Rutgers University0.750.0%1st Place
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8.41George Washington University2.380.0%1st Place
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10.88Cornell University1.740.0%1st Place
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14.39Queen's University0.630.0%1st Place
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15.8Ocean County College-0.110.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conor Cashel | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Robert Boger | 5.0% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Connor Godfrey | 9.0% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daniel LOCHNER | 13.0% | 12.7% | 11.7% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elliott Morrill | 15.2% | 13.3% | 11.3% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christian Geary | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 10.9% | 7.5% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 0.6% |
| Thomas Greathouse | 3.1% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 10.7% | 11.4% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 6.8% | 1.7% |
| Michael Russom | 6.5% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Adrija Navarro | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 9.7% | 15.7% | 24.2% | 23.9% |
| Don Hause III | 9.1% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Heist | 3.3% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 3.5% | 1.9% |
| Julia Paxton | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| George Prieto | 10.2% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| Courtney Williams | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 13.5% | 16.9% | 16.2% | 11.2% |
| Ian Connors | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Colin Keil | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 10.3% | 12.1% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 3.5% | 2.2% |
| Jonah Burke-Kleinman | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 7.9% | 12.3% | 17.6% | 19.7% | 16.7% |
| Michael Suchernick | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 7.4% | 11.2% | 21.4% | 41.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.