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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.32+4.40vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.68+5.60vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.89+2.79vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University3.20+0.54vs Predicted
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6Stevens Institute of Technology2.02+3.71vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College2.63+0.61vs Predicted
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8Cornell University1.74+2.80vs Predicted
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9Fordham University3.11-3.14vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy2.99-3.74vs Predicted
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11Rutgers University0.75+3.14vs Predicted
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12Princeton University0.31+3.05vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.57-4.84vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.62-2.89vs Predicted
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15Columbia University2.55-7.37vs Predicted
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16George Washington University2.38-7.53vs Predicted
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17Queen's University0.63-2.67vs Predicted
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18Ocean County College-0.11-2.03vs Predicted
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19Washington College1.76-8.41vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.4Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.320.1%1st Place
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7.6University of Pennsylvania2.680.1%1st Place
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6.79St. Mary's College of Maryland2.890.1%1st Place
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5.54Old Dominion University3.200.1%1st Place
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9.71Stevens Institute of Technology2.020.0%1st Place
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7.61SUNY Maritime College2.630.1%1st Place
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10.8Cornell University1.740.0%1st Place
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5.86Fordham University3.110.1%1st Place
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6.26U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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14.14Rutgers University0.750.0%1st Place
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15.05Princeton University0.310.0%1st Place
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8.16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.570.1%1st Place
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11.11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.620.0%1st Place
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7.63Columbia University2.550.1%1st Place
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8.47George Washington University2.380.1%1st Place
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14.33Queen's University0.630.0%1st Place
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15.97Ocean County College-0.110.0%1st Place
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10.59Washington College1.760.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elliott Morrill | 12.5% | 12.2% | 11.7% | 10.7% | 11.0% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Michael Russom | 5.6% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Don Hause III | 8.5% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daniel LOCHNER | 12.9% | 12.0% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 7.1% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christian Geary | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 0.5% |
| Julia Paxton | 6.7% | 5.1% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Colin Keil | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 12.0% | 11.4% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 1.6% |
| Connor Godfrey | 11.2% | 11.9% | 8.3% | 11.4% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 5.6% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| George Prieto | 8.7% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Courtney Williams | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 11.9% | 18.5% | 20.0% | 12.4% |
| Adrija Navarro | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 6.7% | 9.5% | 17.2% | 22.3% | 24.4% |
| Robert Boger | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Thomas Greathouse | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 10.0% | 11.4% | 10.8% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 1.4% |
| Conor Cashel | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Ian Connors | 5.2% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Jonah Burke-Kleinman | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 12.3% | 18.8% | 19.6% | 14.1% |
| Michael Suchernick | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 10.3% | 19.8% | 44.0% |
| Thomas Heist | 3.5% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 3.7% | 0.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.