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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University4.26+2.23vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.32+3.59vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.99+3.67vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.89+2.74vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College2.63+2.74vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania2.68+1.61vs Predicted
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8Stevens Institute of Technology2.02+1.95vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University3.20-3.24vs Predicted
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10Princeton University0.31+5.17vs Predicted
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11George Washington University2.38-2.11vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.57-3.95vs Predicted
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13Columbia University2.55-4.64vs Predicted
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14Cornell University1.74-3.17vs Predicted
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15Rutgers University0.75-1.21vs Predicted
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16Washington College1.76-5.15vs Predicted
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17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.62-5.51vs Predicted
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18Queen's University0.63-3.57vs Predicted
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19Ocean County College-0.11-3.16vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.23Fordham University4.260.3%1st Place
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5.59Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.320.1%1st Place
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6.67U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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6.74St. Mary's College of Maryland2.890.1%1st Place
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7.74SUNY Maritime College2.630.1%1st Place
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7.61University of Pennsylvania2.680.1%1st Place
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9.95Stevens Institute of Technology2.020.0%1st Place
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5.76Old Dominion University3.200.1%1st Place
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15.17Princeton University0.310.0%1st Place
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8.89George Washington University2.380.0%1st Place
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8.05U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.570.1%1st Place
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8.36Columbia University2.550.0%1st Place
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10.83Cornell University1.740.0%1st Place
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13.79Rutgers University0.750.0%1st Place
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10.85Washington College1.760.0%1st Place
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11.49U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.620.0%1st Place
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14.43Queen's University0.630.0%1st Place
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15.84Ocean County College-0.110.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olin Paine | 26.6% | 20.5% | 15.6% | 11.6% | 10.3% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elliott Morrill | 8.2% | 10.3% | 12.5% | 10.7% | 12.3% | 10.6% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| George Prieto | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Don Hause III | 7.4% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Julia Paxton | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Michael Russom | 5.6% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Christian Geary | 3.3% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 7.5% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 0.5% |
| Daniel LOCHNER | 10.1% | 12.2% | 9.9% | 10.6% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adrija Navarro | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 9.6% | 15.5% | 24.4% | 24.2% |
| Ian Connors | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 2.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Robert Boger | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Conor Cashel | 4.4% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Colin Keil | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 10.9% | 9.0% | 11.6% | 7.3% | 3.8% | 1.6% |
| Courtney Williams | 1.4% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 8.1% | 11.8% | 17.1% | 17.1% | 11.4% |
| Thomas Heist | 2.3% | 1.5% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 10.6% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 7.9% | 3.6% | 1.1% |
| Thomas Greathouse | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 11.9% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 5.3% | 2.4% |
| Jonah Burke-Kleinman | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 5.0% | 7.8% | 12.2% | 17.6% | 19.8% | 16.3% |
| Michael Suchernick | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 7.6% | 11.0% | 21.1% | 41.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.