← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1U. S. Naval Academy2.99+4.40vs Predicted
-
3Fordham University3.40+1.27vs Predicted
-
4Washington College2.45+3.24vs Predicted
-
5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.65+5.14vs Predicted
-
6Old Dominion University2.42+1.49vs Predicted
-
7SUNY Maritime College2.10+1.38vs Predicted
-
8Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.97-2.56vs Predicted
-
9University of Virginia1.66+1.28vs Predicted
-
10St. Mary's College of Maryland3.34-5.67vs Predicted
-
11Princeton University-0.03+4.72vs Predicted
-
12Queen's University0.68+1.77vs Predicted
-
13University of Pennsylvania1.95-3.68vs Predicted
-
14George Washington University1.77-4.55vs Predicted
-
15Cornell University1.32-3.47vs Predicted
-
16Ocean County College0.70-2.58vs Predicted
-
17Stevens Institute of Technology0.57-2.98vs Predicted
-
18Columbia University1.02-5.51vs Predicted
-
19U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.41-8.02vs Predicted
-
20Rutgers University-0.35-3.67vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
5.4U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
-
4.27Fordham University3.400.2%1st Place
-
7.24Washington College2.450.1%1st Place
-
10.14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.650.0%1st Place
-
7.49Old Dominion University2.420.1%1st Place
-
8.38SUNY Maritime College2.100.1%1st Place
-
5.44Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.970.1%1st Place
-
10.28University of Virginia1.660.0%1st Place
-
4.33St. Mary's College of Maryland3.340.2%1st Place
-
15.72Princeton University-0.030.0%1st Place
-
13.77Queen's University0.680.0%1st Place
-
9.32University of Pennsylvania1.950.0%1st Place
-
9.45George Washington University1.770.0%1st Place
-
11.53Cornell University1.320.0%1st Place
-
13.42Ocean County College0.700.0%1st Place
-
14.02Stevens Institute of Technology0.570.0%1st Place
-
12.49Columbia University1.020.0%1st Place
-
10.98U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.410.0%1st Place
-
16.33Rutgers University-0.350.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lukas Edegran | 9.8% | 14.1% | 9.7% | 12.4% | 10.9% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Jacob | 18.6% | 15.7% | 14.2% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eric Siegel | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Francois Conde-Jahn | 2.0% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 0.2% |
| Mark Miedama | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Nilsen | 5.9% | 4.1% | 7.9% | 4.6% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Brendan O'Leary | 10.6% | 12.2% | 9.4% | 12.2% | 11.5% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Domenic Re | 3.7% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 0.7% |
| Nicholas Clemence | 18.4% | 14.0% | 14.2% | 12.8% | 11.2% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Smith | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 12.2% | 19.5% | 27.4% |
| Taylor Stubbins | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 11.5% | 12.9% | 12.0% | 8.7% |
| Christina Johns | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Jay Spector | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Bradley Barth | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 4.4% | 1.6% |
| Ted Wingender | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 13.2% | 12.1% | 8.1% |
| Matthew Guenther | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 11.1% | 13.6% | 14.1% | 9.4% |
| John Koehler | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 10.0% | 11.0% | 11.0% | 7.5% | 3.5% |
| James Gardner | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 1.3% |
| Mary Morgan | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 10.1% | 17.8% | 38.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.