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📊 Prediction Accuracy
36.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.97+4.43vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.34+2.42vs Predicted
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3Fordham University3.40+1.27vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.99+1.36vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University2.42+2.45vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College2.10+2.40vs Predicted
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7Washington College2.45+0.20vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.65+2.34vs Predicted
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10George Washington University1.77-0.49vs Predicted
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11Cornell University1.32+0.37vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.41-0.98vs Predicted
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13University of Virginia1.66-2.60vs Predicted
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14Ocean County College0.70-0.59vs Predicted
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15University of Pennsylvania1.95-5.84vs Predicted
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16Columbia University1.02-3.67vs Predicted
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17Stevens Institute of Technology0.57-2.96vs Predicted
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18Queen's University0.68-4.35vs Predicted
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19Princeton University-0.03-3.13vs Predicted
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20Rutgers University-0.35-3.64vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.43Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.970.1%1st Place
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4.42St. Mary's College of Maryland3.340.2%1st Place
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4.27Fordham University3.400.2%1st Place
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5.36U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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7.45Old Dominion University2.420.1%1st Place
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8.4SUNY Maritime College2.100.1%1st Place
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7.2Washington College2.450.1%1st Place
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10.34U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.650.0%1st Place
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9.51George Washington University1.770.0%1st Place
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11.37Cornell University1.320.0%1st Place
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11.02U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.410.0%1st Place
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10.4University of Virginia1.660.0%1st Place
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13.41Ocean County College0.700.0%1st Place
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9.16University of Pennsylvania1.950.0%1st Place
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12.33Columbia University1.020.0%1st Place
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14.04Stevens Institute of Technology0.570.0%1st Place
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13.65Queen's University0.680.0%1st Place
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15.87Princeton University-0.030.0%1st Place
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16.36Rutgers University-0.350.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brendan O'Leary | 9.9% | 13.1% | 12.0% | 11.6% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Clemence | 17.4% | 15.1% | 13.6% | 11.2% | 10.8% | 8.8% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Jacob | 18.4% | 15.3% | 14.7% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lukas Edegran | 10.8% | 11.5% | 12.3% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mark Miedama | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Matthew Nilsen | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Eric Siegel | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Francois Conde-Jahn | 3.8% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 0.7% |
| Jay Spector | 3.4% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.8% |
| Bradley Barth | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 3.8% | 1.4% |
| James Gardner | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 3.0% | 1.2% |
| Domenic Re | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Ted Wingender | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 13.5% | 11.2% | 6.8% |
| Christina Johns | 4.8% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| John Koehler | 2.2% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 10.8% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 4.3% |
| Matthew Guenther | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 9.9% | 12.0% | 12.6% | 15.0% | 9.0% |
| Taylor Stubbins | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 10.3% | 13.7% | 12.8% | 8.7% |
| Elizabeth Smith | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 9.5% | 11.2% | 18.6% | 28.2% |
| Mary Morgan | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 9.7% | 19.5% | 38.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.