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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Old Dominion University2.42+6.31vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.34+2.46vs Predicted
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3Cornell University1.32+8.50vs Predicted
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4Washington College2.45+3.20vs Predicted
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5Fordham University3.40-0.62vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.99-0.61vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College2.10+1.50vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania1.95+1.28vs Predicted
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9University of Virginia1.66+0.90vs Predicted
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10George Washington University1.77-0.45vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.97-5.59vs Predicted
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12Ocean County College0.70+1.95vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.41-2.10vs Predicted
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14Columbia University1.02-1.38vs Predicted
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15Queen's University0.68-1.48vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.65-5.97vs Predicted
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17Princeton University-0.03-1.29vs Predicted
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18Rutgers University-0.35-1.35vs Predicted
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20Stevens Institute of Technology0.57-6.27vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.31Old Dominion University2.420.1%1st Place
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4.46St. Mary's College of Maryland3.340.2%1st Place
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11.5Cornell University1.320.0%1st Place
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7.2Washington College2.450.1%1st Place
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4.38Fordham University3.400.1%1st Place
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5.39U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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8.5SUNY Maritime College2.100.1%1st Place
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9.28University of Pennsylvania1.950.0%1st Place
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9.9University of Virginia1.660.0%1st Place
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9.55George Washington University1.770.0%1st Place
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5.41Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.970.1%1st Place
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13.95Ocean County College0.700.0%1st Place
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10.9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.410.0%1st Place
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12.62Columbia University1.020.0%1st Place
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13.52Queen's University0.680.0%1st Place
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10.03U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.650.0%1st Place
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15.71Princeton University-0.030.0%1st Place
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16.65Rutgers University-0.350.0%1st Place
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13.73Stevens Institute of Technology0.570.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Miedama | 5.3% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 10.5% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Clemence | 16.5% | 15.2% | 13.1% | 11.8% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bradley Barth | 2.6% | 2.0% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 4.2% | 2.2% |
| Eric Siegel | 6.1% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Jacob | 15.0% | 15.5% | 15.4% | 12.4% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lukas Edegran | 12.9% | 12.4% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Nilsen | 5.6% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Christina Johns | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| Domenic Re | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.0% |
| Jay Spector | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Brendan O'Leary | 11.5% | 10.9% | 12.2% | 10.9% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ted Wingender | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 10.0% | 11.7% | 13.9% | 13.9% | 7.4% |
| James Gardner | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 1.6% |
| John Koehler | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 11.3% | 8.2% | 3.0% |
| Taylor Stubbins | 1.1% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 13.0% | 13.5% | 8.3% |
| Francois Conde-Jahn | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 0.6% |
| Elizabeth Smith | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 12.5% | 19.8% | 26.4% |
| Mary Morgan | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 10.6% | 16.8% | 41.0% |
| Matthew Guenther | 1.4% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 12.1% | 12.8% | 12.9% | 8.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.