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📊 Prediction Accuracy
5.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.34+3.41vs Predicted
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2Fordham University3.40+2.26vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.97+2.49vs Predicted
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4Washington College2.45+3.17vs Predicted
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5University of Virginia1.66+5.35vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College2.10+2.44vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania1.95+2.07vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University2.42-0.56vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy2.99-3.74vs Predicted
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10Queen's University0.68+3.67vs Predicted
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11Ocean County College0.70+2.60vs Predicted
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12George Washington University1.77-2.02vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.65-3.07vs Predicted
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14Cornell University1.32-2.49vs Predicted
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15Columbia University1.02-2.66vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.41-5.06vs Predicted
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17Stevens Institute of Technology0.57-3.04vs Predicted
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19Princeton University-0.03-3.17vs Predicted
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20Rutgers University-0.35-3.65vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.41St. Mary's College of Maryland3.340.2%1st Place
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4.26Fordham University3.400.2%1st Place
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5.49Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.970.1%1st Place
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7.17Washington College2.450.1%1st Place
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10.35University of Virginia1.660.0%1st Place
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8.44SUNY Maritime College2.100.0%1st Place
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9.07University of Pennsylvania1.950.0%1st Place
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7.44Old Dominion University2.420.1%1st Place
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5.26U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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13.67Queen's University0.680.0%1st Place
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13.6Ocean County College0.700.0%1st Place
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9.98George Washington University1.770.0%1st Place
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9.93U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.650.0%1st Place
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11.51Cornell University1.320.0%1st Place
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12.34Columbia University1.020.0%1st Place
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10.94U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.410.0%1st Place
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13.96Stevens Institute of Technology0.570.0%1st Place
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15.83Princeton University-0.030.0%1st Place
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16.35Rutgers University-0.350.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Clemence | 15.5% | 16.4% | 13.3% | 13.8% | 10.6% | 8.8% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Jacob | 18.7% | 14.7% | 14.6% | 11.4% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brendan O'Leary | 12.1% | 11.5% | 10.4% | 11.5% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Eric Siegel | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Domenic Re | 1.9% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 4.1% | 1.0% | 0.7% |
| Matthew Nilsen | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Christina Johns | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Mark Miedama | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Lukas Edegran | 12.7% | 11.5% | 11.8% | 11.5% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Taylor Stubbins | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 13.6% | 12.8% | 7.9% |
| Ted Wingender | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 11.5% | 13.0% | 11.3% | 7.6% |
| Jay Spector | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Francois Conde-Jahn | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 0.3% |
| Bradley Barth | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 1.3% |
| John Koehler | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 3.8% |
| James Gardner | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 0.9% |
| Matthew Guenther | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 14.6% | 14.2% | 11.0% |
| Elizabeth Smith | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 9.3% | 11.1% | 19.4% | 27.4% |
| Mary Morgan | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 10.5% | 18.4% | 38.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.