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📊 Prediction Accuracy
15.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Old Dominion University2.42+6.20vs Predicted
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2University of Virginia1.66+8.13vs Predicted
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3Fordham University3.40+1.29vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.97+1.48vs Predicted
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5Washington College2.45+2.37vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.99-0.65vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland3.34-2.66vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.65+2.34vs Predicted
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9Cornell University1.32+2.26vs Predicted
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10Ocean County College0.70+3.56vs Predicted
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11Queen's University0.68+2.71vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College2.10-3.31vs Predicted
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13George Washington University1.77-3.52vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.41-2.79vs Predicted
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15University of Pennsylvania1.95-6.02vs Predicted
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17Columbia University1.02-4.58vs Predicted
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18Stevens Institute of Technology0.57-4.01vs Predicted
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19Princeton University-0.03-3.11vs Predicted
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20Rutgers University-0.35-3.68vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.2Old Dominion University2.420.1%1st Place
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10.13University of Virginia1.660.0%1st Place
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4.29Fordham University3.400.2%1st Place
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5.48Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.970.1%1st Place
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7.37Washington College2.450.1%1st Place
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5.35U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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4.34St. Mary's College of Maryland3.340.2%1st Place
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10.34U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.650.0%1st Place
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11.26Cornell University1.320.0%1st Place
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13.56Ocean County College0.700.0%1st Place
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13.71Queen's University0.680.0%1st Place
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8.69SUNY Maritime College2.100.0%1st Place
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9.48George Washington University1.770.0%1st Place
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11.21U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.410.0%1st Place
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8.98University of Pennsylvania1.950.0%1st Place
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12.42Columbia University1.020.0%1st Place
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13.99Stevens Institute of Technology0.570.0%1st Place
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15.89Princeton University-0.030.0%1st Place
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16.32Rutgers University-0.350.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Miedama | 5.6% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Domenic Re | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| Alex Jacob | 19.3% | 14.0% | 13.0% | 12.7% | 10.7% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brendan O'Leary | 12.4% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 11.9% | 10.7% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eric Siegel | 5.4% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lukas Edegran | 13.0% | 11.0% | 13.2% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Clemence | 16.2% | 15.8% | 14.0% | 12.6% | 11.7% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Francois Conde-Jahn | 2.5% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 0.7% |
| Bradley Barth | 2.4% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 2.1% |
| Ted Wingender | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 13.4% | 11.7% | 7.3% |
| Taylor Stubbins | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 12.2% | 11.3% | 13.6% | 7.4% |
| Matthew Nilsen | 4.0% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 10.3% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Jay Spector | 4.0% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| James Gardner | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 3.3% | 1.2% |
| Christina Johns | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| John Koehler | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 11.9% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 2.8% |
| Matthew Guenther | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 10.3% | 13.9% | 13.7% | 11.5% |
| Elizabeth Smith | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 12.2% | 18.1% | 28.1% |
| Mary Morgan | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 10.4% | 19.0% | 37.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.