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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University3.40+3.31vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.99+3.53vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.34+1.54vs Predicted
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4University of Virginia1.66+6.21vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University2.42+2.56vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.65+4.04vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College2.10+1.58vs Predicted
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8Stevens Institute of Technology0.57+6.09vs Predicted
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9Cornell University1.32+2.22vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.02-1.31vs Predicted
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11Columbia University1.02+1.47vs Predicted
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12Ocean County College0.70+1.79vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.97-7.62vs Predicted
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14Queen's University0.68-0.36vs Predicted
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15University of Pennsylvania1.95-6.00vs Predicted
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16Rutgers University-0.35+0.25vs Predicted
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18George Washington University1.77-8.33vs Predicted
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19Princeton University-1.47-0.86vs Predicted
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20Washington College2.45-13.09vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.31Fordham University3.400.2%1st Place
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5.53U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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4.54St. Mary's College of Maryland3.340.2%1st Place
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10.21University of Virginia1.660.0%1st Place
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7.56Old Dominion University2.420.1%1st Place
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10.04U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.650.0%1st Place
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8.58SUNY Maritime College2.100.1%1st Place
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14.09Stevens Institute of Technology0.570.0%1st Place
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11.22Cornell University1.320.0%1st Place
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8.69U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.020.0%1st Place
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12.47Columbia University1.020.0%1st Place
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13.79Ocean County College0.700.0%1st Place
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5.38Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.970.1%1st Place
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13.64Queen's University0.680.0%1st Place
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9.0University of Pennsylvania1.950.0%1st Place
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16.25Rutgers University-0.350.0%1st Place
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9.67George Washington University1.770.0%1st Place
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18.14Princeton University-1.470.0%1st Place
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6.91Washington College2.450.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Jacob | 17.4% | 14.9% | 14.4% | 13.8% | 10.3% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lukas Edegran | 12.0% | 11.0% | 11.5% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Clemence | 17.0% | 14.8% | 13.3% | 9.9% | 11.0% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Domenic Re | 2.3% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Mark Miedama | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Francois Conde-Jahn | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Matthew Nilsen | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Matthew Guenther | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 10.0% | 13.6% | 16.4% | 14.8% | 4.9% |
| Bradley Barth | 2.2% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 11.4% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 3.5% | 0.2% |
| Austin Neuman | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| John Koehler | 1.1% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 12.1% | 10.2% | 5.7% | 1.2% |
| Ted Wingender | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 13.7% | 16.7% | 12.3% | 3.0% |
| Brendan O'Leary | 11.6% | 12.3% | 10.0% | 12.3% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Taylor Stubbins | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 12.6% | 14.2% | 15.7% | 10.7% | 2.3% |
| Christina Johns | 4.3% | 3.6% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Mary Morgan | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 14.0% | 34.5% | 18.5% |
| Jay Spector | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 2.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Colby Morris | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 5.8% | 14.3% | 69.4% |
| Eric Siegel | 7.1% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.