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📊 Prediction Accuracy
36.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.34+3.49vs Predicted
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2Fordham University3.40+2.36vs Predicted
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3University of Virginia1.66+7.23vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.99+1.43vs Predicted
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5Washington College2.45+2.35vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania1.95+2.99vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.02+1.78vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.65+2.37vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College2.10-0.63vs Predicted
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10Cornell University1.32+1.32vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.97-5.45vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University2.42-4.40vs Predicted
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13Ocean County College0.70+0.33vs Predicted
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14George Washington University1.77-4.13vs Predicted
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15Queen's University0.68-1.60vs Predicted
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16Rutgers University-0.35+0.30vs Predicted
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17Columbia University1.02-4.59vs Predicted
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18Stevens Institute of Technology0.57-4.04vs Predicted
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20Princeton University-1.47-2.11vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.49St. Mary's College of Maryland3.340.1%1st Place
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4.36Fordham University3.400.2%1st Place
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10.23University of Virginia1.660.0%1st Place
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5.43U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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7.35Washington College2.450.1%1st Place
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8.99University of Pennsylvania1.950.0%1st Place
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8.78U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.020.0%1st Place
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10.37U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.650.0%1st Place
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8.37SUNY Maritime College2.100.1%1st Place
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11.32Cornell University1.320.0%1st Place
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5.55Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.970.1%1st Place
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7.6Old Dominion University2.420.1%1st Place
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13.33Ocean County College0.700.0%1st Place
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9.87George Washington University1.770.0%1st Place
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13.4Queen's University0.680.0%1st Place
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16.3Rutgers University-0.350.0%1st Place
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12.41Columbia University1.020.0%1st Place
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13.96Stevens Institute of Technology0.570.0%1st Place
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17.89Princeton University-1.470.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Clemence | 14.9% | 16.3% | 13.0% | 13.7% | 11.1% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Jacob | 17.4% | 15.2% | 14.8% | 11.4% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Domenic Re | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 0.4% |
| Lukas Edegran | 11.0% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 13.1% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eric Siegel | 6.0% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christina Johns | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Austin Neuman | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Francois Conde-Jahn | 4.0% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 0.2% |
| Matthew Nilsen | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Bradley Barth | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 2.3% | 0.4% |
| Brendan O'Leary | 9.9% | 11.9% | 11.2% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mark Miedama | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 10.3% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ted Wingender | 2.0% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 9.1% | 11.3% | 14.3% | 13.5% | 10.1% | 3.1% |
| Jay Spector | 3.8% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Taylor Stubbins | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 12.8% | 15.9% | 10.2% | 4.8% |
| Mary Morgan | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 14.7% | 34.9% | 18.6% |
| John Koehler | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 12.4% | 11.2% | 6.7% | 1.6% |
| Matthew Guenther | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 12.6% | 15.2% | 13.5% | 4.8% |
| Colby Morris | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 6.4% | 15.0% | 65.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.