← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
36.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Fordham University3.40+3.30vs Predicted
-
2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.97+3.58vs Predicted
-
3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.34+1.52vs Predicted
-
4University of Virginia1.66+6.21vs Predicted
-
5Washington College2.45+2.46vs Predicted
-
6University of Pennsylvania1.95+3.04vs Predicted
-
7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.02+1.84vs Predicted
-
8Cornell University1.32+3.61vs Predicted
-
10Columbia University1.02+2.29vs Predicted
-
11SUNY Maritime College2.10-2.60vs Predicted
-
12Old Dominion University2.42-4.63vs Predicted
-
13Queen's University0.68+0.92vs Predicted
-
14Ocean County College0.70-0.67vs Predicted
-
15Stevens Institute of Technology0.57-0.98vs Predicted
-
16Rutgers University-0.35+0.13vs Predicted
-
17U. S. Naval Academy2.99-11.63vs Predicted
-
18George Washington University1.77-8.35vs Predicted
-
19Princeton University-1.47-0.90vs Predicted
-
20U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.65-10.14vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
4.3Fordham University3.400.2%1st Place
-
5.58Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.970.1%1st Place
-
4.52St. Mary's College of Maryland3.340.2%1st Place
-
10.21University of Virginia1.660.0%1st Place
-
7.46Washington College2.450.1%1st Place
-
9.04University of Pennsylvania1.950.0%1st Place
-
8.84U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.020.0%1st Place
-
11.61Cornell University1.320.0%1st Place
-
12.29Columbia University1.020.0%1st Place
-
8.4SUNY Maritime College2.100.0%1st Place
-
7.37Old Dominion University2.420.1%1st Place
-
13.92Queen's University0.680.0%1st Place
-
13.33Ocean County College0.700.0%1st Place
-
14.02Stevens Institute of Technology0.570.0%1st Place
-
16.13Rutgers University-0.350.0%1st Place
-
5.37U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
-
9.65George Washington University1.770.0%1st Place
-
18.1Princeton University-1.470.0%1st Place
-
9.86U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.650.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Jacob | 17.4% | 15.6% | 14.4% | 11.0% | 12.5% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brendan O'Leary | 11.2% | 11.4% | 11.0% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Clemence | 17.3% | 15.4% | 11.2% | 12.4% | 10.6% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Domenic Re | 2.2% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Eric Siegel | 5.4% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christina Johns | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Austin Neuman | 4.6% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Bradley Barth | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 3.9% | 0.7% |
| John Koehler | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 11.4% | 5.5% | 1.7% |
| Matthew Nilsen | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Mark Miedama | 5.8% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 10.0% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Taylor Stubbins | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 13.0% | 18.3% | 12.6% | 3.4% |
| Ted Wingender | 1.9% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 12.0% | 15.5% | 12.8% | 10.6% | 2.5% |
| Matthew Guenther | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 14.1% | 15.6% | 14.4% | 3.8% |
| Mary Morgan | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 14.0% | 30.7% | 20.7% |
| Lukas Edegran | 11.2% | 11.9% | 12.1% | 10.3% | 11.1% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jay Spector | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Colby Morris | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 5.4% | 17.4% | 66.8% |
| Francois Conde-Jahn | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.