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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University3.40+3.27vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.34+2.48vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.97+2.55vs Predicted
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4Washington College2.45+3.25vs Predicted
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5University of Virginia1.66+5.32vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.99-0.56vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.02+1.88vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College2.10+0.71vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.65+1.04vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University2.42-2.78vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania1.95-1.95vs Predicted
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12Cornell University1.32-0.30vs Predicted
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13Ocean County College0.70+0.29vs Predicted
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14Columbia University1.02-1.45vs Predicted
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15Queen's University0.68-1.56vs Predicted
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16Stevens Institute of Technology0.57-2.17vs Predicted
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18George Washington University1.77-8.33vs Predicted
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19Rutgers University-0.35-2.60vs Predicted
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20Princeton University-1.47-2.09vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.27Fordham University3.400.2%1st Place
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4.48St. Mary's College of Maryland3.340.2%1st Place
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5.55Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.970.1%1st Place
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7.25Washington College2.450.1%1st Place
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10.32University of Virginia1.660.0%1st Place
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5.44U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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8.88U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.020.0%1st Place
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8.71SUNY Maritime College2.100.0%1st Place
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10.04U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.650.0%1st Place
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7.22Old Dominion University2.420.1%1st Place
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9.05University of Pennsylvania1.950.0%1st Place
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11.7Cornell University1.320.0%1st Place
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13.29Ocean County College0.700.0%1st Place
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12.55Columbia University1.020.0%1st Place
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13.44Queen's University0.680.0%1st Place
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13.83Stevens Institute of Technology0.570.0%1st Place
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9.67George Washington University1.770.0%1st Place
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16.4Rutgers University-0.350.0%1st Place
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17.91Princeton University-1.470.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Jacob | 16.8% | 16.9% | 13.5% | 13.3% | 11.0% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Clemence | 16.6% | 15.7% | 12.3% | 12.0% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brendan O'Leary | 12.2% | 10.3% | 11.8% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eric Siegel | 5.5% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Domenic Re | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Lukas Edegran | 12.9% | 10.7% | 11.4% | 12.2% | 10.1% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Austin Neuman | 4.6% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Nilsen | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Francois Conde-Jahn | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| Mark Miedama | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 9.8% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christina Johns | 3.3% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Bradley Barth | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 3.9% | 0.6% |
| Ted Wingender | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 8.5% | 12.6% | 13.0% | 13.4% | 11.1% | 2.4% |
| John Koehler | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 13.4% | 6.0% | 1.2% |
| Taylor Stubbins | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 12.1% | 15.9% | 12.1% | 3.8% |
| Matthew Guenther | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 14.5% | 14.0% | 14.7% | 3.3% |
| Jay Spector | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Mary Morgan | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 5.8% | 8.9% | 13.8% | 32.9% | 21.0% |
| Colby Morris | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 7.5% | 13.6% | 66.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.