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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.03+4.31vs Predicted
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2University of Vermont1.31+7.29vs Predicted
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3Boston College2.09+1.76vs Predicted
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4Brown University1.33+2.60vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania1.72+1.31vs Predicted
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6Salve Regina University0.83+4.30vs Predicted
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7Connecticut College0.65+1.88vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University1.25-0.51vs Predicted
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9Boston University1.14-1.49vs Predicted
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10Tufts University0.66-1.09vs Predicted
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11Fordham University1.13-2.59vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University0.95-3.33vs Predicted
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13University of South Florida1.09-5.77vs Predicted
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14University of Michigan0.05-2.68vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Institute of Technology0.75-5.98vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.31U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.0313.0%1st Place
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9.29University of Vermont1.313.4%1st Place
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4.76Boston College2.0915.0%1st Place
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6.6Brown University1.338.8%1st Place
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6.31University of Pennsylvania1.728.6%1st Place
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10.3Salve Regina University0.833.2%1st Place
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8.88Connecticut College0.655.4%1st Place
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7.49Roger Williams University1.255.8%1st Place
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7.51Boston University1.147.4%1st Place
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8.91Tufts University0.664.2%1st Place
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8.41Fordham University1.135.5%1st Place
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8.67Old Dominion University0.955.0%1st Place
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7.23University of South Florida1.097.7%1st Place
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11.32University of Michigan0.052.1%1st Place
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9.02Massachusetts Institute of Technology0.754.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emily Bornarth | 13.0% | 12.7% | 11.8% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Grace Gear | 3.4% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 9.5% |
| Caroline Sibilly | 15.0% | 15.3% | 11.9% | 12.4% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Charlotte Costikyan | 8.8% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.4% |
| Torrey Chisari | 8.6% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.1% |
| Pearl Lattanzi | 3.2% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 10.6% | 13.0% | 16.3% |
| Aili Moffet | 5.4% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 6.5% |
| Claire Siegel-Wilson | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 2.4% |
| Tiare Sierra | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 2.9% |
| Meredith Broadus | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 8.1% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 5.4% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 5.6% |
| Emma Shakespeare | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 2.1% |
| Luciana Solorzano | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 9.6% | 14.9% | 28.7% |
| Brooke Barry | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 9.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.