Race 10A

emily-wick

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

21.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Caroline Sibilly 14.7% 14.5% 14.0% 11.7% 10.3% 9.2% 6.7% 6.0% 4.9% 3.8% 2.3% 1.1% 0.8% 0.1%
Charlotte Costikyan 10.0% 8.5% 9.8% 9.1% 8.2% 7.9% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.3% 5.9% 4.5% 2.6% 2.1%
Kay Brunsvold 11.7% 10.8% 10.8% 10.2% 9.2% 8.8% 8.3% 6.8% 6.7% 5.9% 5.1% 3.5% 1.5% 0.8%
Emma Snead 7.3% 7.8% 8.2% 9.0% 8.0% 8.6% 7.3% 8.8% 7.8% 7.0% 6.7% 5.9% 4.7% 2.8%
Torrey Chisari 9.8% 10.0% 10.2% 9.1% 9.4% 8.7% 8.9% 8.3% 7.1% 5.8% 5.5% 3.5% 2.5% 1.1%
Elizabeth Cutler 5.8% 5.5% 6.0% 5.5% 6.3% 5.9% 6.7% 7.5% 8.2% 8.9% 8.8% 9.4% 8.2% 7.0%
Pearl Lattanzi 4.1% 4.4% 3.8% 4.2% 3.9% 4.3% 4.7% 5.9% 5.8% 7.2% 8.5% 10.8% 12.6% 20.1%
Grace Gear 5.1% 4.8% 4.9% 4.8% 5.2% 6.6% 5.8% 6.8% 7.0% 7.6% 9.5% 9.8% 10.6% 11.5%
Elizabeth Gildea 4.9% 6.3% 5.1% 5.9% 6.1% 6.3% 6.7% 7.3% 8.1% 7.8% 7.6% 8.6% 9.5% 9.6%
Claire Siegel-Wilson 7.8% 7.3% 6.4% 7.6% 9.1% 8.3% 7.9% 7.5% 7.0% 7.9% 7.4% 6.2% 5.5% 3.9%
Tiare Sierra 6.3% 7.5% 6.5% 7.6% 8.4% 8.6% 8.5% 7.0% 7.4% 8.2% 6.9% 7.0% 6.2% 3.8%
Brooke Barry 4.9% 4.5% 5.9% 4.9% 6.2% 5.8% 5.8% 6.8% 7.0% 8.1% 8.0% 9.2% 12.3% 10.5%
Izzy Wu-Karr 3.1% 3.4% 3.4% 4.5% 4.5% 5.0% 5.7% 5.8% 7.4% 7.6% 8.6% 10.9% 12.7% 17.7%
Meredith Broadus 4.5% 4.6% 5.0% 5.9% 5.3% 5.9% 7.8% 7.2% 8.1% 7.8% 9.2% 9.3% 10.3% 9.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.