Race 11A

emily-wick

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

35.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Caroline Sibilly 15.7% 13.7% 13.0% 11.9% 10.3% 8.4% 8.1% 6.5% 4.5% 3.4% 2.2% 1.3% 0.7% 0.2%
Torrey Chisari 10.3% 9.4% 9.3% 10.0% 8.2% 9.9% 8.6% 6.8% 7.3% 6.9% 5.1% 4.0% 2.8% 1.2%
Meredith Broadus 5.0% 5.1% 5.0% 4.5% 5.4% 5.5% 6.6% 8.2% 7.4% 7.3% 8.7% 9.7% 10.7% 10.9%
Kay Brunsvold 9.7% 11.1% 12.2% 8.5% 8.7% 9.4% 7.9% 7.6% 6.1% 6.4% 5.4% 3.4% 2.9% 0.8%
Charlotte Costikyan 9.2% 9.1% 9.7% 8.4% 9.4% 8.6% 9.1% 7.8% 6.7% 6.5% 5.5% 4.5% 4.0% 1.6%
Pearl Lattanzi 2.6% 3.2% 3.1% 3.5% 4.2% 4.8% 5.1% 5.6% 6.6% 7.1% 9.5% 11.7% 11.7% 21.4%
Elizabeth Gildea 4.8% 5.3% 5.0% 6.6% 6.2% 6.9% 6.5% 6.7% 7.3% 7.1% 8.8% 9.3% 9.7% 9.8%
Aili Moffet 4.2% 5.1% 5.2% 6.0% 6.6% 6.0% 6.0% 6.9% 7.8% 8.4% 8.0% 9.1% 10.4% 10.2%
Brooke Barry 5.2% 4.6% 4.2% 4.5% 5.5% 5.9% 6.4% 6.4% 7.5% 8.8% 7.3% 9.8% 12.2% 11.6%
Emma Snead 8.9% 8.2% 7.9% 9.3% 8.9% 8.2% 7.2% 8.1% 7.2% 6.7% 6.4% 6.2% 4.0% 2.6%
Elizabeth Cutler 5.5% 5.7% 5.8% 5.9% 7.2% 6.0% 6.7% 6.3% 7.8% 7.8% 10.2% 8.5% 8.0% 8.6%
Claire Siegel-Wilson 7.4% 7.1% 7.1% 7.9% 6.7% 7.0% 7.7% 8.9% 8.0% 7.8% 7.1% 7.0% 5.7% 4.5%
Grace Gear 4.3% 4.8% 5.0% 5.0% 5.7% 5.9% 6.7% 5.9% 8.3% 7.0% 8.8% 8.9% 12.2% 11.7%
Tiare Sierra 7.0% 7.5% 7.4% 8.0% 6.9% 7.4% 7.6% 8.3% 7.4% 8.8% 7.0% 6.7% 5.2% 4.7%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.