Race 3A

nelson-roltsch-scrimmage

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

63.6%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Matthew King 13.2% 11.8% 11.3% 11.7% 10.8% 11.2% 9.7% 8.1% 7.0% 4.3% 0.9%
Gordon Gurnell 15.6% 15.3% 13.4% 12.0% 10.7% 9.7% 8.3% 6.2% 6.2% 2.1% 0.4%
Jack Solmo 12.4% 11.8% 11.7% 11.5% 11.3% 9.8% 10.2% 9.4% 6.8% 4.0% 1.1%
Zander King 16.6% 16.2% 15.8% 13.1% 11.7% 8.2% 8.2% 5.3% 2.8% 1.6% 0.5%
Emily Allen 9.8% 9.7% 10.8% 10.4% 9.8% 10.9% 10.8% 10.7% 9.0% 5.5% 2.6%
Jordan Byrd 5.1% 6.6% 7.1% 6.6% 8.2% 8.9% 10.7% 10.7% 14.1% 14.2% 7.8%
Andreas Keswater 7.1% 6.8% 8.0% 8.0% 9.8% 10.8% 10.2% 11.0% 11.2% 11.8% 5.3%
Humberto Porrata 8.7% 8.8% 9.2% 9.9% 10.1% 11.2% 10.4% 11.7% 9.3% 7.8% 3.0%
Ella DesChamps 1.6% 2.1% 1.9% 2.4% 2.5% 3.4% 4.5% 6.0% 7.9% 15.6% 52.2%
Kaitlyn Liebel 3.1% 3.8% 3.8% 4.8% 5.2% 6.4% 7.2% 9.9% 13.6% 21.5% 20.8%
Brent Penwarden 6.9% 7.2% 6.9% 9.8% 9.8% 9.5% 9.8% 11.1% 12.1% 11.8% 5.3%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.