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📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Christian Manchester 15.7% 14.4% 12.0% 11.2% 11.4% 7.1% 7.9% 6.3% 6.1% 3.5% 2.1% 0.8% 0.9% 0.6% 0.0%
David Alfonso 9.4% 11.5% 10.6% 9.4% 10.4% 8.4% 9.1% 7.9% 7.8% 5.5% 4.4% 3.6% 1.2% 0.8% 0.0%
Emily Billing 9.0% 8.2% 10.7% 9.3% 6.9% 9.9% 7.9% 10.1% 9.0% 8.1% 5.5% 2.9% 1.7% 0.7% 0.1%
George Saunders 7.5% 7.0% 7.1% 8.2% 8.5% 7.5% 8.6% 7.8% 10.0% 8.1% 8.8% 5.5% 3.4% 1.6% 0.4%
Ryan Pesch 11.7% 11.5% 8.3% 11.7% 8.7% 11.2% 8.2% 9.3% 5.9% 4.9% 4.9% 2.4% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1%
Bo McClatchy 7.0% 7.7% 7.2% 6.8% 7.8% 9.1% 11.1% 8.8% 8.2% 10.0% 5.9% 6.0% 3.2% 1.0% 0.2%
Nicolas Russo-Larsson 12.2% 10.1% 11.0% 9.8% 12.9% 9.1% 8.2% 7.5% 5.8% 5.8% 3.6% 2.7% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Ryan Hughes 5.7% 5.7% 6.8% 6.8% 7.0% 7.4% 7.5% 8.4% 8.7% 9.3% 10.8% 8.5% 4.8% 2.4% 0.2%
Colin Santangelo 5.7% 6.3% 7.7% 7.8% 7.7% 8.9% 7.7% 9.9% 8.6% 9.6% 9.2% 6.0% 3.3% 1.3% 0.3%
Tom Charpentier 1.1% 2.0% 1.5% 2.4% 1.3% 2.8% 4.3% 2.4% 5.8% 6.4% 9.1% 11.4% 17.9% 19.0% 12.6%
Kyle Carney 9.6% 10.2% 9.5% 9.4% 8.8% 8.5% 8.7% 8.3% 7.5% 5.7% 6.3% 4.1% 2.3% 1.1% 0.0%
Thomas Presti 1.8% 1.1% 2.2% 1.3% 2.2% 2.7% 3.6% 3.5% 6.3% 7.2% 7.8% 13.8% 20.0% 17.1% 9.4%
Bryant Dunn 2.1% 2.7% 3.5% 4.0% 3.8% 4.2% 3.5% 6.7% 5.1% 8.5% 11.8% 13.6% 14.5% 11.4% 4.6%
Meghan Breslin-Jewer 0.6% 0.5% 0.6% 0.4% 0.9% 0.7% 1.2% 1.4% 2.0% 2.9% 3.4% 6.4% 11.9% 17.7% 49.4%
Ian Gilchrist 0.9% 1.1% 1.3% 1.5% 1.7% 2.5% 2.5% 1.7% 3.2% 4.5% 6.4% 12.3% 13.1% 24.6% 22.7%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.