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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.40+4.76vs Predicted
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2Webb Institute1.30+3.92vs Predicted
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3Northwestern University1.49+2.62vs Predicted
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4Connecticut College0.60+3.99vs Predicted
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5Brown University1.99-0.70vs Predicted
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61.05+0.47vs Predicted
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7University of Wisconsin1.09-0.36vs Predicted
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8Northeastern University1.71-2.78vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University2.40-5.77vs Predicted
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10Princeton University0.46-1.87vs Predicted
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11The Citadel0.19-2.23vs Predicted
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12SUNY Stony Brook-0.68-0.95vs Predicted
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13University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.42-1.11vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.76U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.408.2%1st Place
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5.92Webb Institute1.308.2%1st Place
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5.62Northwestern University1.498.9%1st Place
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7.99Connecticut College0.603.8%1st Place
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4.3Brown University1.9915.8%1st Place
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6.471.056.6%1st Place
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6.64University of Wisconsin1.096.0%1st Place
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5.22Northeastern University1.7110.2%1st Place
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3.23Roger Williams University2.4024.9%1st Place
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8.13Princeton University0.463.7%1st Place
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8.77The Citadel0.192.6%1st Place
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11.05SUNY Stony Brook-0.680.9%1st Place
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11.89University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.420.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradley Whiteway | 8.2% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Everett Botwinick | 8.2% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 10.6% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 4.6% | 1.9% | 0.1% |
| Shea Smith | 8.9% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Fritz Baldauf | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 11.0% | 13.9% | 16.1% | 9.0% | 2.4% |
| Katharine Doble | 15.8% | 14.6% | 14.3% | 11.8% | 12.0% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Olin Guck | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 3.1% | 0.4% |
| Abe Weston | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 7.4% | 3.4% | 0.4% |
| Will Priebe | 10.2% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 12.3% | 12.5% | 11.2% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 2.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 24.9% | 20.3% | 17.8% | 12.4% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ossian Kamal | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 12.8% | 12.8% | 16.5% | 9.8% | 3.0% |
| Kenneth Buck | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 10.7% | 14.3% | 18.7% | 13.8% | 5.5% |
| Jessica Schaefer | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 11.2% | 35.9% | 28.6% |
| Andy Giaya | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 19.9% | 59.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.