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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Rhode Island2.93+5.69vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College3.18+3.97vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University3.61+1.77vs Predicted
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4Boston University3.63+0.76vs Predicted
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5Salve Regina University3.06+1.51vs Predicted
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6Boston College3.55-0.99vs Predicted
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8Bowdoin College2.41+0.28vs Predicted
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9Tufts University3.37-3.49vs Predicted
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10Yale University2.77-2.80vs Predicted
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11Harvard University3.10-4.59vs Predicted
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12Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31-3.38vs Predicted
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13Brandeis University-0.10+0.74vs Predicted
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14University of Connecticut0.66-1.50vs Predicted
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15Northeastern University1.48-4.28vs Predicted
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16Bates College0.07-2.70vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.69University of Rhode Island2.930.1%1st Place
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5.97Dartmouth College3.180.1%1st Place
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4.77Roger Williams University3.610.1%1st Place
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4.76Boston University3.630.1%1st Place
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6.51Salve Regina University3.060.1%1st Place
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5.01Boston College3.550.1%1st Place
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8.28Bowdoin College2.410.0%1st Place
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5.51Tufts University3.370.1%1st Place
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7.2Yale University2.770.1%1st Place
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6.41Harvard University3.100.1%1st Place
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8.62Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.310.0%1st Place
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13.74Brandeis University-0.100.0%1st Place
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12.5University of Connecticut0.660.0%1st Place
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10.72Northeastern University1.480.0%1st Place
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13.3Bates College0.070.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Simmons | 8.6% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 7.9% | 5.3% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| John Renehan | 7.5% | 9.8% | 11.9% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cameron Pimentel | 14.5% | 13.4% | 11.5% | 11.5% | 11.7% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Perkins | 15.0% | 13.7% | 11.6% | 11.7% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Eric Decesar | 8.0% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 10.7% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Mullins | 11.5% | 13.4% | 11.1% | 11.2% | 12.8% | 10.2% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Fiske | 4.9% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 10.7% | 12.1% | 11.6% | 12.1% | 7.3% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| William Hutchings | 11.1% | 11.0% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Kurzrok | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Jason Michas | 7.3% | 6.6% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Charles Field | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 13.9% | 13.9% | 7.4% | 2.9% | 0.7% |
| Josh Basseches | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 3.2% | 5.3% | 12.3% | 28.4% | 45.5% |
| James Fales | 0.3% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 6.7% | 10.4% | 27.1% | 24.6% | 16.7% |
| Kevin Walsh | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 11.1% | 22.2% | 19.0% | 11.0% | 2.8% |
| Nick Sneath | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 3.8% | 7.0% | 17.0% | 29.5% | 33.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.