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📊 Prediction Accuracy
61.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.30+0.96vs Predicted
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2University of California at Los Angeles1.79+2.61vs Predicted
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3California Poly Maritime Academy0.86+4.03vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California0.90+2.68vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara1.44-0.09vs Predicted
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6University of California at San Diego0.68+1.40vs Predicted
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7University of Washington0.81-0.17vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Cruz0.86-0.49vs Predicted
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9Arizona State University0.74-0.76vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.35-1.98vs Predicted
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11Western Washington University0.67-3.37vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley-0.56-1.54vs Predicted
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13San Diego State University-0.19-3.28vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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1.96Stanford University3.3047.5%1st Place
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4.61University of California at Los Angeles1.7910.0%1st Place
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7.03California Poly Maritime Academy0.863.9%1st Place
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6.68University of Southern California0.905.2%1st Place
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4.91University of California at Santa Barbara1.449.2%1st Place
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7.4University of California at San Diego0.683.5%1st Place
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6.83University of Washington0.814.3%1st Place
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7.51University of California at Santa Cruz0.863.5%1st Place
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8.24Arizona State University0.742.2%1st Place
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8.02Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.353.8%1st Place
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7.63Western Washington University0.673.9%1st Place
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10.46University of California at Berkeley-0.561.3%1st Place
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9.72San Diego State University-0.191.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 47.5% | 27.1% | 13.8% | 7.6% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grant Janov | 10.0% | 14.1% | 14.9% | 13.9% | 14.4% | 10.1% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Kawika Tumilowicz | 3.9% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 10.7% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 3.2% |
| Morgana Manti | 5.2% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 4.8% | 1.8% |
| Ted McDonough | 9.2% | 13.1% | 13.4% | 14.3% | 11.4% | 10.6% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Noah Barton | 3.5% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 4.0% |
| Aragorn Crozier | 4.3% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 11.4% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 4.8% | 2.8% |
| Blake Roberts | 3.5% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 4.9% |
| Aidan Boylan | 2.2% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 11.8% | 9.2% |
| Robert Bloomfield | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 7.8% |
| Dalton Lovett | 3.9% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 11.0% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 4.8% |
| Victoria Chen | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 10.1% | 16.8% | 37.5% |
| Morgan Burton | 1.6% | 1.8% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 12.1% | 18.0% | 23.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.