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📊 Prediction Accuracy
61.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.30+0.93vs Predicted
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2University of California at San Diego0.68+5.31vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara1.44+1.88vs Predicted
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4University of California at Los Angeles1.79+0.56vs Predicted
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5San Diego State University-0.19+4.63vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Cruz0.86+1.64vs Predicted
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7University of Southern California0.90-0.14vs Predicted
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8Arizona State University0.74+0.28vs Predicted
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9California Poly Maritime Academy0.86-1.92vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley-0.56+0.31vs Predicted
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11University of Washington0.81-4.18vs Predicted
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12Western Washington University0.67-4.46vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.35-4.84vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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1.93Stanford University3.3049.2%1st Place
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7.31University of California at San Diego0.683.6%1st Place
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4.88University of California at Santa Barbara1.449.1%1st Place
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4.56University of California at Los Angeles1.7910.4%1st Place
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9.63San Diego State University-0.191.4%1st Place
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7.64University of California at Santa Cruz0.863.0%1st Place
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6.86University of Southern California0.904.2%1st Place
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8.28Arizona State University0.742.5%1st Place
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7.08California Poly Maritime Academy0.864.4%1st Place
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10.31University of California at Berkeley-0.561.5%1st Place
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6.82University of Washington0.815.0%1st Place
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7.54Western Washington University0.673.2%1st Place
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8.16Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.352.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 49.2% | 26.1% | 14.6% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Noah Barton | 3.6% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 11.2% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 4.5% |
| Ted McDonough | 9.1% | 13.6% | 14.0% | 13.4% | 12.2% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Grant Janov | 10.4% | 15.3% | 14.5% | 13.9% | 13.5% | 10.6% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Morgan Burton | 1.4% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 11.5% | 16.7% | 24.0% |
| Blake Roberts | 3.0% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 6.0% |
| Morgana Manti | 4.2% | 5.7% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 2.4% |
| Aidan Boylan | 2.5% | 3.5% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 12.6% | 9.2% |
| Kawika Tumilowicz | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 5.9% | 2.9% |
| Victoria Chen | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 11.5% | 16.2% | 34.9% |
| Aragorn Crozier | 5.0% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 2.5% |
| Dalton Lovett | 3.2% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 10.8% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 5.0% |
| Robert Bloomfield | 2.4% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 12.0% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 8.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.