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📊 Prediction Accuracy
61.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.30+0.95vs Predicted
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2University of California at Los Angeles1.79+2.47vs Predicted
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3Arizona State University0.74+5.33vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara1.44+0.91vs Predicted
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5University of Washington0.81+1.92vs Predicted
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6California Poly Maritime Academy0.86+1.04vs Predicted
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7University of Southern California0.90-0.15vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Cruz0.86-0.50vs Predicted
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9University of California at San Diego0.68-1.62vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley-0.56+0.40vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.35-2.89vs Predicted
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12San Diego State University-0.19-2.42vs Predicted
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13Western Washington University0.67-5.46vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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1.95Stanford University3.3047.6%1st Place
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4.47University of California at Los Angeles1.7910.2%1st Place
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8.33Arizona State University0.743.0%1st Place
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4.91University of California at Santa Barbara1.449.7%1st Place
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6.92University of Washington0.814.0%1st Place
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7.04California Poly Maritime Academy0.863.6%1st Place
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6.85University of Southern California0.904.2%1st Place
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7.5University of California at Santa Cruz0.863.4%1st Place
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7.38University of California at San Diego0.684.5%1st Place
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10.4University of California at Berkeley-0.560.8%1st Place
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8.11Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.353.0%1st Place
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9.58San Diego State University-0.191.7%1st Place
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7.54Western Washington University0.674.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 47.6% | 28.4% | 12.3% | 6.9% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grant Janov | 10.2% | 14.2% | 16.2% | 16.1% | 12.0% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Aidan Boylan | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 11.5% | 11.5% | 13.6% | 8.9% |
| Ted McDonough | 9.7% | 11.1% | 15.1% | 13.4% | 13.0% | 10.4% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Aragorn Crozier | 4.0% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 2.5% |
| Kawika Tumilowicz | 3.6% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 3.1% |
| Morgana Manti | 4.2% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 11.2% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 2.8% |
| Blake Roberts | 3.4% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 8.3% | 4.7% |
| Noah Barton | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 4.0% |
| Victoria Chen | 0.8% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 16.0% | 36.9% |
| Robert Bloomfield | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 11.2% | 9.5% | 12.0% | 10.2% | 8.5% |
| Morgan Burton | 1.7% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 12.4% | 16.0% | 22.9% |
| Dalton Lovett | 4.2% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 10.5% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 5.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.