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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.30+0.97vs Predicted
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2University of California at Los Angeles1.79+2.54vs Predicted
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3University of Southern California0.90+3.83vs Predicted
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4California Poly Maritime Academy0.86+2.97vs Predicted
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5University of California at San Diego0.68+2.24vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Barbara1.44-1.00vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Cruz0.86+0.61vs Predicted
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8Arizona State University0.74+0.28vs Predicted
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9University of Washington0.81-2.00vs Predicted
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10San Diego State University-0.19-0.34vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.35-2.96vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley-0.56-1.62vs Predicted
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13Western Washington University0.67-5.52vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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1.97Stanford University3.3047.9%1st Place
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4.54University of California at Los Angeles1.7910.5%1st Place
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6.83University of Southern California0.904.5%1st Place
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6.97California Poly Maritime Academy0.863.6%1st Place
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7.24University of California at San Diego0.683.5%1st Place
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5.0University of California at Santa Barbara1.448.7%1st Place
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7.61University of California at Santa Cruz0.863.2%1st Place
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8.28Arizona State University0.742.9%1st Place
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7.0University of Washington0.814.6%1st Place
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9.66San Diego State University-0.191.9%1st Place
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8.04Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.353.4%1st Place
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10.38University of California at Berkeley-0.561.5%1st Place
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7.48Western Washington University0.673.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 47.9% | 27.0% | 13.7% | 6.6% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grant Janov | 10.5% | 14.1% | 15.4% | 14.2% | 12.8% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Morgana Manti | 4.5% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 3.0% |
| Kawika Tumilowicz | 3.6% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 6.3% | 2.5% |
| Noah Barton | 3.5% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 4.8% |
| Ted McDonough | 8.7% | 11.6% | 13.4% | 14.7% | 12.7% | 10.9% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Blake Roberts | 3.2% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 4.6% |
| Aidan Boylan | 2.9% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 10.4% | 11.6% | 12.6% | 9.4% |
| Aragorn Crozier | 4.6% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 3.2% |
| Morgan Burton | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 12.8% | 17.4% | 22.1% |
| Robert Bloomfield | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 11.3% | 11.2% | 7.4% |
| Victoria Chen | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 16.2% | 37.8% |
| Dalton Lovett | 3.9% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 5.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.