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📊 Prediction Accuracy
15.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.30+0.93vs Predicted
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2University of California at Los Angeles1.79+2.52vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara1.44+2.02vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Cruz0.86+3.59vs Predicted
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5University of California at San Diego0.68+2.31vs Predicted
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6University of Southern California0.90+0.79vs Predicted
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7San Diego State University-0.19+2.59vs Predicted
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8University of California at Berkeley-0.56+2.41vs Predicted
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9University of Washington0.81-2.25vs Predicted
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10Western Washington University0.67-2.36vs Predicted
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11California Poly Maritime Academy0.86-3.84vs Predicted
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12Arizona State University0.74-3.83vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.35-4.89vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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1.93Stanford University3.3047.3%1st Place
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4.52University of California at Los Angeles1.7910.8%1st Place
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5.02University of California at Santa Barbara1.448.2%1st Place
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7.59University of California at Santa Cruz0.864.0%1st Place
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7.31University of California at San Diego0.684.0%1st Place
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6.79University of Southern California0.904.5%1st Place
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9.59San Diego State University-0.191.7%1st Place
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10.41University of California at Berkeley-0.561.5%1st Place
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6.75University of Washington0.814.8%1st Place
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7.64Western Washington University0.674.2%1st Place
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7.16California Poly Maritime Academy0.863.5%1st Place
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8.17Arizona State University0.742.9%1st Place
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8.11Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.352.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 47.3% | 28.7% | 13.7% | 6.2% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grant Janov | 10.8% | 13.7% | 16.2% | 14.0% | 13.1% | 10.4% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Ted McDonough | 8.2% | 10.9% | 14.1% | 14.1% | 12.4% | 11.9% | 9.8% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Blake Roberts | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 8.2% | 5.5% |
| Noah Barton | 4.0% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 4.4% |
| Morgana Manti | 4.5% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 11.4% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 4.9% | 2.8% |
| Morgan Burton | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 12.8% | 17.2% | 21.9% |
| Victoria Chen | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 16.3% | 37.1% |
| Aragorn Crozier | 4.8% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 2.5% |
| Dalton Lovett | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 5.0% |
| Kawika Tumilowicz | 3.5% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 3.8% |
| Aidan Boylan | 2.9% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 11.5% | 10.9% | 9.1% |
| Robert Bloomfield | 2.8% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 11.3% | 11.2% | 7.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.