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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Wesleyan University2.71+1.75vs Predicted
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2Maine Maritime Academy1.38+3.63vs Predicted
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3Brandeis University1.25+2.74vs Predicted
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4Amherst College1.69+0.58vs Predicted
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5Middlebury College1.50-0.03vs Predicted
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6University of Connecticut1.96-1.93vs Predicted
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8University of New Hampshire1.52-2.95vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.99-2.84vs Predicted
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10McGill University1.06-3.96vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.75Wesleyan University2.710.3%1st Place
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5.63Maine Maritime Academy1.380.1%1st Place
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5.74Brandeis University1.250.1%1st Place
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4.58Amherst College1.690.1%1st Place
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4.97Middlebury College1.500.1%1st Place
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4.07University of Connecticut1.960.1%1st Place
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5.05University of New Hampshire1.520.1%1st Place
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6.16Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.990.1%1st Place
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6.04McGill University1.060.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John McGlynn | 31.2% | 22.0% | 17.5% | 12.3% | 8.8% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Andrew McHenry | 5.6% | 7.5% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 11.6% | 13.5% | 14.5% | 14.3% | 13.1% |
| Jared Dunn | 5.9% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 10.9% | 9.1% | 12.1% | 14.7% | 16.0% | 15.0% |
| Johannes Raatz | 11.2% | 13.5% | 12.7% | 13.3% | 12.4% | 12.3% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 5.6% |
| Jack Kerby-Miller | 9.9% | 11.2% | 13.8% | 9.9% | 12.6% | 9.6% | 11.7% | 10.9% | 10.4% |
| Michael Rottier | 14.4% | 15.9% | 14.4% | 15.2% | 12.8% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 4.4% | 3.8% |
| Will Humphrey | 9.1% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 11.8% | 12.9% | 14.4% | 11.6% | 11.5% | 8.2% |
| Priscilla Stoll | 6.5% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 11.4% | 10.7% | 13.3% | 15.5% | 23.6% |
| Maxime Fecteau | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 10.0% | 8.4% | 12.5% | 13.7% | 16.6% | 20.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.